The top two seeds in the Midwest Region have advanced to the Elite Eight, but it’s not the No. 1 seed that is favored to advance. The Duke Blue Devils have been made the favorites in their matchup against the higher-seeded Kansas Jayhawks.
Kansas hopes to show that the selection committee pegged its ability better than the oddsmakers by pulling out the win. The Blue Devils aren’t a huge favorite but hope to take care of business to make it to the national semifinals.
This is the only region that ended with a 1-2 matchup in the Elite Eight and could shape up to be a really competitive and entertaining contest.
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Odds Analysis
Duke is listed as a 3.5-point favorite in this matchup. The Jayhawks are getting about 57 percent of the action to cover this spread. The scoring total is listed at 155.5 points with the “under” the more common choice.
The Jayhawks are 30-7 straight up and 19-17 against the spread. Kansas has covered in six of nine attempts on neutral courts this season. The Jayhawks have only been the underdog four times this season and have covered in three of them.
Duke is 28-7 straight up and 22-12 against the spread. The Blue Devils are 6-2 against the spread on neutral courts. Duke is 21-11 against the spread against the favorite.
Last Time Out
The Jayhawks advanced to the Elite Eight with a 79-75 win over Clemson in the Sweet Sixteen. Kansas led by 13 points at halftime and then held off a late rally by the Tigers. Kansas shot 45 percent from three-point range which really helped build the early lead. Malik Newman led the way for the Jayhawks with 17 points.
Duke made it here by squeaking out a 69-65 victory over Syracuse. The Blue Devils led by seven at halftime and then sunk enough free throws down the stretch to hold on for the win. Marvin Bagley had 22 points and eight rebounds to pace the Blue Devils. He will be a top pick in the NBA draft once this season is over but Bagley is hoping to lead Duke to the Final Four.
Key Stat
20.4. That’s Duke’s average point-differential in each game, which plays a role in why it is the favorite even though Kansas is the higher seed and has the slightly better overall record. The Blue Devils were in the tough ACC and many of their wins were by blowout and their losses close.
There are many times in which point-differential is a better predictor of success than win-loss record. Duke averages 84.9 points per game and allows only 64.5 points per contest. Kansas is good but not quite as good. The Jayhawks have averaged 81.4 points per game while allowing 69.5 per contest.
Free NCAA ATS Picks
Duke has the more talented team and should have been the top seed in the Midwest Region. The Jayhawks have won a pair of close games to get to this point but their journey will end. Take the Blue Devils to not only win this game but also cover the NCAA basketball spread.
Duke is playing well and should move along into the Final Four with another victory in March Madness betting lines.
NCAA Odds: Duke 83, Kansas 78
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