The Duke Blue Devils sit atop the AP and send to Virginia the Coaches Poll here in Week 10 of the college basketball season as they journey to Tallahassee to take on the No.13 Florida State Seminoles in an intriguing ACC showdown.
Since losing to Gonzaga in November, the Blue Devils have been red-hot, nearly unbeatable regardless of the opposition and have already breezed through Clemson and Wake Forest early in the conference schedule. Florida State represents a different challenge, particularly at the Donald L. Tucker Center, but can the Seminoles slow a Duke team loaded with first round NBA talent?
The Seminoles failed their first conference test against Virginia, but can a return home for the battle with Duke put them in a better position for the upset?
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Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles
Date and Time: Saturday, January 12, 2019, 2 p.m. ET
Location: Donald L. Tucker Center, Tallahassee, Florida
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Blue Devils vs. Seminoles TV Coverage: ESPN
After their loss to Gonzaga on November 21, the Blue Devils have won eight straight, scoring at least 84 in all but one of those game. The exception came in a 69-58 win over a ranked Texas Tech team.
In that game, the Red Raiders did well defensively to hold Duke to 38.3-percent shooting from the floor and a dismal 3-for-20 mark outside. Despite that, the Blue Devils were able to get the win thanks to a strong performance on the glass along with 15 steals and seven blocks. While Duke’s offense is elite, the defense is, too.
Duke has already beaten a handful of ranked opponents this year and has a nice deep roster with plenty of talent inside the paint.
Zion Williamson, in particular, has really stood out. The freshman forward is shooting 67.9-percent from the floor with 20.9 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 2.2 SPG and 1.9 BPG. He’s doing it all on both sides of the ball and looking like a once-in-a-generation like talent. He’s the likely first pick in the NBA Draft and for good reason.
While he, alone, makes this a good team, the scariest part is just how stacked the team is around him. Fellow freshman R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones have gelled while Jack White and Marques Bolden offer some quality leadership.
Barrett actually leads Williamson in scoring with 22.8 PPG. He’s not as accurate a shooter, but he’s a good ball handler with 4.1 APG and provides some quality production on the glass and can even shoot occasionally from the outside, helping to spread the court alongside Jones who is often the lone true guard on the court.
Jones is an assists machine and sets up Barrett, Williamson and even Reddish who has 12.6 PPG of his own.
When you break it down, this Duke team is just nasty. It’s deep, talented, athletic and mature beyond its years. The team has 91 PPG with a shooting percentage just shy of 50-percent and a solid mark on the perimeter as well. The team’s also putting up 45 boards a game and eight blocks thanks to Williamson, Bolden, White and Javin DeLaurier.
On the Seminoles’ side of the court, the strength is on defense, but the team can shoot a bit, too, averaging 79 points.
There are no 20 PPG guys like Barrett or Williamson, but Terance Mann, Mfiondu Kabengele and Trent Forrest all are scoring in the double-digits while the team boasts plenty of depth with five more players putting up between seven and 8.2 PPG.
We saw the team’s offensive vulnerability against Virginia when the team lost 65-52. They played well defensively in that game, but shot just 34.1-percent from the floor and failed to get anyone into double digit points.
Mann was scoreless in that game, but he leads the team in scoring with 12.1 PPG. He’s the key to the backcourt. He’s a strong outside shot that helps open up shots inside for the likes of Kabengele. The forward isn’t as good of a shot as many inside, but he still gets the job done.
Kabengele and Christ Koumadje own in the inside defensively with 2.5 combined BPG. Koumadje stands at 7’4” with a massive wingspan, serving as an intimidating presence down low.
In the backcourt, Mann, Forrest and M.J. Walker play crucial roles, but the team has a number of other contributors as well as they spread the ball around.
In most categories, Duke stands ahead of FSU. The Blue Devils have a huge advantage on the glass while Florida State has 37 RPG and no one coming close to Williamson on the boards. Duke is also a more efficient shooting team, but FSU does deliver more consistency on the free throw line.
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The KenPom ratings have Duke as the number one team according to the team’s adjusted efficiency margin that sits at a shockingly impressive +33.48.
The Blue Devils rank third offensively with a 119.5 adjusted offensive efficiency and second on defense at 86. Florida State, meanwhile, is above average on both ends, too, but not nearly to the same extent. The defense out paces the offense, but Duke is far above on both accounts. FSU has adjusted efficiency margin at +19.35.
With defense the strength of the Seminoles, it’ll be up to their defense to try and slow Duke’s offense like Texas Tech. The Red Raiders, however, boast the No.1 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country, Florida State is No.17. Granted, the Seminoles do have a better offense.
Keep an eye on the FSU’s ability to slow the Duke offense. If the Blue Devils struggle a bit shooting and finding the open shot early, the Seminoles may have a chance to at least keep this one close and keep the score under the total.
Watch how the spread and total develop at BookMaker.eu where you can also take advantage of all the latest props and live betting opportunities as well.
Key Player
Terance Mann is the key player in this matchup. The Seminoles have Kabengele and Koumadje inside the paint to provide some defense against the likes of Williamson and Barrett, but Duke will still score its points. Florida State can suppress that a bit, but will still need to put points on the board and the team may be able to do that on the outside.
Mann is the team’s leading scorer with 12.1 PPG and the best player on the court for them. He’s shooting well from the floor at 54.3-percent and nearly 42-percent on the outside. The senior guard is the leader of the team, but he’s been a bit up-and-down so far.
Against Virginia he was held scoreless and the team scored just 52 in the loss as result. Prior to that, Mann had a combined 56 points over three games. He’s reached 20 points three times this year, but has scored five or less—including the goose egg against Virginia—three times as well.
FSU needs the good, productive Mann on the court to have a chance against Duke.
Blue Devils vs. Seminoles Live Betting
The Blue Devils should be able to get the win on the road in this game. This is the best combination of offense and defense in the country. They put up 69 against the best defense in the nation according to KenPom and will do better than that on Saturday afternoon against a very good, but lesser, defense in FSU.
Look for Williamson and Barrett to do their thing even against Kabengele and Koumadje. Williamson in particular has been seemingly unstoppable, looking like a man amongst boys even against elite competition. The scary things is, with all the freshman for the Blue Devils, this team is just getting better and better.
On the outside, Jones should have a solid performance. Look for a big game from him as well as Duke spreads the court.
Check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for this weekend’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Duke 83, Florida State 74
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