It’s still quiet early in the conference schedule, but the Penn State Nittany Lions could use a win in the worst way as they travel to Ann Arbor to take on dynamic Michigan Wolverines squad that’s climbed to the second spot in the AP Poll and to No.4 in the Coaches Poll.
Michigan will be sizeable favorites at home over the Nittany Lions, and for good reason. Penn State has some talent, but the team has failed to find any consistency in the early going. They miss Tony Carr desperately as the team lacks a star player able to put the team on his shoulders and win games.
When you boil it down, the Wolverines are one of the nation’s top teams, playing at home against a team that failed to make the NCAA Tournament a year ago and has clearly taken a step backwards since. Can the Nittany Lions get the unlikely upset or will Michigan continue to dominate on defense and roll over Penn State again?
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Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines
Date and Time: Thursday, January 3, 2019, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan
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Nittany Lions vs. Wolverines TV Coverage: ESPN
Penn State is fresh off a win heading into their showdown with the Wolverines which is great, but the Nittany Lions got that win over UMBC at home. Michigan is a whole different monster, particularly with the Lions hitting the road for the contest.
Penn State has been awful on the road this year. They lost their most recent road game to Alabama, 64-73. Teams like DePaul and Bradley University have toppled the Nittany Lions already this year as have Maryland, Indiana and NC State along with the aforementioned Alabama.
The team has struggled offensively all year with just 70 PPG and a shooting percentage under 42-percent form the floor. They’re okay from three, largely due to solid shooting on the outside by freshman guard Rasir Bolton. Fellow guards Josh Reaves and Myles Dread have been solid on the outside as well. The backcourt is okay overall, but lacks a clear standout.
Inside the paint, Lamar Stevens is the team’s star. He’s elevated his game to try and take over for Carr. He’s played well, but isn’t nearly as dynamic a player. He’s still got 18.8 PPG, but he’s only shooting 42.7-percent from the floor and has taken entirely too many ill-advised shots from the outside. He’s a solid rebounder, but is limited inside due to his height.
Mike Watkins offers a bit more size—and defense—compared to Stevens, but is hardly a huge presence inside the paint. All in all, the Nittany Lions lack size compared to what you’d expect from a Power-5 team. They also lack depth on the roster. Even with a couple freshman stepping up, the bench is lacking in quality shooters or solid defensive options to relieve the team’s primary players.
In short, Penn State is out manned, particularly against one of the nation’s best teams in Michigan.
The Wolverines come into play boasting a stout defense. The team’s scored 73 PPG which tops Penn State on offense while sporting that killer defense.
Michigan has won 13 straight games to open the season, including wins against Villanova, North Carolina and Purdue. They’ve beaten teams far better, far more consistent, and far deeper than Penn State.
Most recently, the Wolverines are coming off a win against Binghampton, their second straight game allowing 52 or fewer points. The team hasn’t given up more than 78 points all year and, in fact, has kept the opposition to 67 or fewer in all but one single outing.
Jon Teske is a bit part of that defense inside. The lanky center stands at 7’1” and is a beast on defense with 2.1 BPG and 6.4 RPG. He doesn’t take too many shots, but when he does post up, he’s found success under the basket.
Teske is joined inside by Ignas Brazdeikis who’s a solid scorer inside with 16.1 PPG. Meanwhile, the backcourt tis stacked, too. Charles Matthews is one of the game’s top talents. He’s scoring 14.5 PPG while providing solid rebounding outside. He and Zavier Simpson are also two very strong defensive guards, putting pressure on the outside with their ability to steal. Simpson is also a strong point guard with the ability to set up his teammates. He’s got 5.9 APG. Jordan Poole is another strong presence outside both defensively and offensively.
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Michigan’s defense will hold the Nittany Lion’s at bay offensively. Penn State cannot managed to score more than 70 PPG against mediocre defensive opposition, they’ll find real matchup issues against the Wolverines. Look for Stevens and Watkins to be overwhelmed inside while Bolton and company could find a bit more success on the perimeter, but the shooting still figures to be suspect.
The big variable here will be the Michigan offense against Penn State’s defense which has been lackluster and inconsistent. The Nittany Lions will need to play tough—despite a lack of size inside—to keep Michigan from running away with this one.
Watch how if Penn State can get anything going against Michigan early and be sure to take advantage of all the live betting opportunities at BookMaker.eu.
Key Player
Teske has scored a combined nine points over his last three games and has just 7.8 PPG on the year, but the third year center for Michigan is the key given his size and ability to impact the game defensively.
The towering center has seen more playing time this year. While he’s not a threat offensively, he provides a huge obstacle—pun intended—inside the paint.
Penn State struggles to score against the average opponent, but against Michigan things get even more difficult. The backcourt is staked for the Wolverines. Stevens is the primary offensive threat for the Nittany Lions and he plays inside. He’ll have to contend with Teske and a strong Michigan frontcourt to have a chance.
Teske has 2.1 BPG and eight over his last four games. He’s also a rebounding threat so while he figures to be low on the scoring charts, he’s crucial to Michigan’s ability to suppress an already suspect Penn State offense in order to cover the spread.
Nittany Lions vs. Wolverines Live Betting
Offensively, Penn State doesn’t stand a chance against Michigan who will easily suppress the Nittany Lion’s scoring ability. When Stevens struggles to find the basket regularly, the Lions don’t win. Look for Stevens to have a rough day, sinking around a third of his shots and ultimately nabbing no more than a dozen points. That won’t be nearly enough.
Meanwhile, look for the Wolverines to get the Nittany Lion defense. The Wolverines have managed to score plenty against the likes of UNC, South Carolina and others. This team is about slowing the pace of play and defense, but the offense can score, particularly with a sizeable advantage inside and a much deeper pool of talent.
Be sure to check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for this weekend’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Michigan 79, Penn State 58
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