The North Carolina Tar Heels need a bounce-back win as they get set to host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Chapel Hill on Tuesday night. UNC is coming off a tough loss and cannot afford another loss in what is a top-heavy ACC.
The Irish haven’t gotten off to a great conference start themselves, but did break a two-game losing streak to start conference play with a win in their last contest, a direct opposite of the Tar Heels to dropped to 2-1 in ACC play with its latest loss to Louisville.
UNC is the better team according to the rankings and KenPom ratings with a superior offense and largely underrated defense. Can a spotty Notre Dame defense hold the strong Tar Heel offense enough to get the upset and keep UNC down? Or will North Carolina bounce back at home to topple the Irish and get back in the win column?
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Date and Time: Tuesday, January 15, 2019, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
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Fighting Irish vs. Tar Heels TV Coverage: ESPN
The Fighting Irish finally got in the win column in ACC play on Saturday afternoon, topping Boston College by a narrow three-point margin, 69-66, for their first in-conference victory.
Notre Dame was able to get that win at home, but will now be on the road when facing UNC. The Irish are 1-3 SU this season when away from the Pucell Pavilion.
In the win over BC, Notre Dame played well defensively on the outside and ended with five blocks and seven steals as the defense led the team to victory despite shooting only 21-for-61 form the floor. Good shooting from the free throw line helped as well.
Prior to that game, the defense had let the Irish down in ACC play. The defense for Notre Dame is average overall and will need to play well to slow a powerhouse offense in UNC on Tuesday.
Offensively, the Irish are led by John Mooney who scored 27 of the team’s 69 in their latest game. Prentiss Hubb was the only other Notre Dame in double-digits in that game, scoring 16.
On the year, the freshman guard is getting plenty of time on the court, but has just 6.8 PPG. His 16 against BC came on the heels of a 0-for against Syracuse.
If Hubb can sustain his success, that certainly deepens a backcourt that misses Rex Pflueger. Hubb adding an extra scoring threat alongside TJ Gibb and D.J. Harvey could go a long way.
Inside, the Irish are led by Mooney though 6’10” freshman Nate Laszewski has seen his production on the glass improve immensely of late. Juwan Durham is likely a game-time decision for this game. He’s only playing around 15 minutes per game, but is a huge presence—physically and otherwise—under the basket and a strong defender with 3.3 BPG despite the limited time.
Luke Maye, Garrison Brooks, and Nassir Little are the main threats inside for UNC. Neither offer a ton of size from the forward position, but Maye is an important piece in the offense with 14.4 PPG and also serves an important role as the team’s leader on the glass with a staggering 10.1 RPG.
The Tar Heels are one of the best rebounding teams in the country with 44 boards per contest. Laszewski will be needed to continue his improved trend on the glass for Notre Dame to keep the rebounding battle close.
Inside, UNC adds to a strong front court with a very good backcourt. Seventh Woods and Kenny Williams are strong ball handlers with a number of assists along with solid defense. Cameron Johnson leads the team in scoring. Coby White is another strong offensive weapon. Johnson, in particular, is a great shot, shooting 50.6-percent from the floor and 47-percent from the arc.
As a team, the Tar Heels are scoring 88 PPG, but that number took a hit on Saturday when Louisville beat UNC 83-62, keeping North Carolina below 70-points for just the second time this season. Michigan was the other team to accomplish the feat. By comparison, the team has scored at least 90 seven times and hit 89 on one other occasion.
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The Cardinals are a better defensive team—and better team overall—than the Irish, but Louisville set out a good model for out a defense can beat UNC. The question is: can Notre Dame replicate in anyway?
Louisville defended the perimeter very well, but also held Maye to just 3-for-14 from the floor for nine points as the leading scorer inside. UNC also shot just 3-for-22 from the perimeter.
Watch how well UNC does shooting out of the gate, particularly outside. The Tar Heels need to establish themselves outside to spread the court and open up shots for Maye and company inside the paint. If Notre Dame can find a way to keep the score suppressed, they could have a chance to at least cover the spread. If not, particularly, early, the Tar Heels have the deeper lineup and will run away with this one.
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Key Player
UNC is a dynamic offensive team and while the Tar Heels have been a bit more vulnerable than some expected at times this year, the team’s still a top ranked team primarily on the strength of the offense, even if it is coming of a disappointing performance.
The Tar Heels will be motivated to show last game was a fluke and the offense isn’t likely to be squelched in back-to-back games. With that in mind, the Irish will need to put up some offense of its own a repeat of last game by Prentiss Hubb would certainly help.
Notre Dame already has some solid players outside, but Gibbs and Harvey are not overly reliable outside. Hubb’s had issues shooting, but was 4-for-8 from three-point range against Boston College. If he can become a semi-reliable outside threat, that opens up lanes for several other players, including Mooney and Gibb, the two this team needs on their game to have a chance at an upset.
Fighting Irish vs. Tar Heels Live Betting
The Tar Heels are coming off a tough loss to Louisville, opening up some holes in the game for Roy William’s team, but UNC should bounce back. They remain at home and thus have an advantage not having to travel. The Irish have also struggled away from home. UNC should be able to exploit that.
Look for Johnson to shoot well outside while Maye notches another double-double, leading the team to a decisive edge on the boards.
The Tar Heels should see their offense pick back up after a tough outing while Notre Dame fights to keep up. Eventually, UNC should be able to mount a nice second half run to gain some distance and cruise to a win on the strength of what is ultimately a deep roster.
Check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for Tuesday’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: North Carolina 84, Notre Dame 72
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