A battle between the Xavier Musketeers and the Villanova Wildcats is typically a premier event in the Big East. These two teams were both No.1 seeds in last year’s NCAA Tournament and are two of the best teams in college hoops let alone the conference over the last few years.
Villanova will host Xavier on Saturday night in the City of Brotherly Love with both teams having been disappointments to this point in the season. Of course, the Wildcats are still ranked in the top-25 in the AP, albeit near the bottom, and have gotten off to a strong start in their conference schedule, winning the first four.
To this point, the Wildcats are still a bit slow and inconsistent, but have should some growth in recent weeks. Can that growth continue with a nice win against Xavier? Or will the Musketeers be able to put together a strong performance—playing up to the competition—in what looks to be a rebuilding year for Xavier?
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Xavier Musketeers vs. Villanova Wildcats
Date and Time: Friday, January 18, 2019, 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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Musketeers vs. Wildcats TV Coverage: FS1
The Wildcats were the NCAA Tournament champions last year and started off as strong preseason contenders to repeat.
It hasn’t gone quite according to plan for Villanova who continue to sit near the bottom of the AP and Coaches’ Poll. The team still ranks as the top team in the Big East according to the KenPom ratings, but even there, this is a solid team, but not one of the elites in college hoops.
As a team, the Wildcats are scoring just 75 PPG. They’re shooting okay from the floor and well enough outside. They’re okay on the glass and grab a few blocks and a handful of steals per game. This is a good offense and a good defense, but they’re supposed to be better than that.
This team hasn’t developed according to plan. They’re a very slow paced team and while they’ve been efficient offensively, they need to find more chances. A faster pace and more aggressive approach would certainly help.
While the Wildcats have been less than expected this year, they’re still a good team. They’ve won five in a row now, including their first four conference games. Most recently, the Wildcats topped Creighton in Omaha, 90-78. The 90-point performance was very encouraging as both Phil Booth and Eric Paschall put up more than 20 points and the team in general shot 53.4-percent from the floor.
Booth and Paschall are the leaders of this team on the floor. Booth scored 28 last game and has 18.2 PPG. He’s a threat on the perimeter shooting 40.7-percent from the floor and sinking nearly three shots a game from the perimeter.
Booth is also tops on the team in assists. He’s joined in the backcourt by Collin Gillespie and Joe Cremo. Both have a strong outside shot. Cremo doesn’t shoot a whole lot, but Gillespie is third on the team in scoring behind Booth and Paschall.
Speaking of Paschall, he’s holding down the inside with 16.5 PPG and 6.4 RPG. He’s a good scorer from the forward position while Jermaine Samuels and Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree are the bigger defensive contributors under the basket.
On the other side of this matchup, Xavier enters play off back-to-back wins which is encouraging. The team is 11-7 overall and 3-2 in conference.
The last two wins for the Musketeers came at home. In the latest, Xavier barely inched out Butler, 70-69, by dominating the boards and notching six blocks to allow them to win despite shooting less than 40-percent from the floor.
According to the KenPom ratings, it’s the Xavier defense that’s weaker than the offense according to the adjusted figures, but Xavier has more rebounds and more blocks on the season than Villanova. The area they’re statistically behind is in scoring with 74 PPG and shooting, namely outside where the team is shooting just 31.7-percent.
Paul Scruggs is the only real outside threat for Xavier. The guard is tied with Naji Marshall for the team lead in scoring with 13.2 PPG. The Musketeers don’t have any prolific scorers like Villanova, but the team is deep with five players averaging double-digits. The team has seven players with at least 20 minutes on the court.
The Musketeers have Marshall, Zach Hankins and Tyrique Jones as three strong forwards. All three can put points on the board. Hankins isn’t a strong rebounder, but is a good defender inside. Marshall and Jones, meanwhile each have north of seven RPG.
Outside, Scruggs is a versatile guard who contributes on the glass in addition to shooting over 50-percent from the floor. Quentin Goodin, meanwhile, is a good enough shot to put points on the board, but is a much better ball handler with 5.4 APG.
Live Betting
Watch the boards in this one as the Musketeers appear to match up well inside the paint in this one. Xavier will need to take advantage of anything it can to get the upset, or at least cover the spread.
With that in mind, watch and see how well Paschall and company are able to rebound, creating second chances on offense and getting the ball back on defense. Villanova will likely shoot better form the floor. The team picked up the pace a bit recently and the 90 point outburst last outing was positive, but the Wildcats are still a deliberate team.
If Xavier can maintain a noticeable edge on the glass, that could buy them enough added chances to keep this one within reach. Be sure to take that into account for all the live betting opportunities at BookMaker.eu.
Key Player
Watch for Paul Scruggs in this one. The Xavier frontcourt matches up far better against the Wildcats than the backcourt.
Scruggs is the top guy on the outside and is a solid player overall. He’s a former top-100 recruit and the talent is showing through at times. This team lacks a true No.1 scorer and Scruggs probably isn’t that player on a top team, but he’s the best the Musketeers have right now.
Still, he’s taken a sizable step forward in a much bigger role than he had last year. The sophomore is coming off a huge game against Butler, scoring 23 points with eight rebounds and six assists. He’s contributing on all facets of the game. Perhaps most importantly, he shot 5-for-8 from three-point range, spreading the court. Prior to that, he was 0-for-3 from the outside in the last two games. Xavier needs Scruggs to shoot well outside in this one.
Musketeers vs. Wildcats Live Betting
The Xavier frontcourt will allow the Musketeers to hang in against Villanova for a while, but ultimately, the offensive efficiency of the Wildcats gets Villanova the win.
Count on big performances by Booth and Gillespie while Paschall shows he can still score despite a strong opposing frontcourt.
On the other side, Scruggs likely regresses from his strong outside showing last game. He’ll continue to play well and likely lead the team in scoring, but won’t be as accurate outside. Meanwhile, Xavier doesn’t appear to have anyone else really capable of stepping up and carrying the team on his shoulders to a road win over a top-25 team.
Check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for this weekend’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Villanova 76, Xavier 68
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