We have a great ACC matchup on tap for Saturday afternoon with a pair of top-10 teams squaring off on the hardwood. In the game, the No.4 Virginia Cavaliers will play host to the No.9 Florida State Seminoles in Charlottesville.
This game is the first of a rather tough week for the Seminoles that also features Duke. A win here on Saturday could help buoy the team even higher up the rankings while a loss could be a start of a rough week that sees Florida State fall back down to earth.
Can the Seminoles get the upset in this one? Virginia is a KenPom favorite and a well-balanced squad. They’re, by far, the biggest test for FSU to this point. But, this is also the same program that became the first one-seed in NCAA Tournament history to fall to a 16-seed. Upsets do happen and this is a battle of two top-10 programs.
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Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Date and Time: Saturday, January 5, 2019, 3 p.m. ET
Location: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, Virginia
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Seminoles vs. Cavaliers Tide TV Coverage: ESPN2
The Cavaliers enter play ranked fourth in the AP, but have a much more favorable ranking in the Coaches Poll and the KenPom ratings, sitting second behind only Duke in both.
Virginia has rebounded nicely from last year’s disappointing loss to UMBC in the NCAA Tournament and wrapped up non-conference play with an undefeated record, the only undefeated team left in the ACC.
Of course, the Cav’s non-conference schedule wasn’t exactly stacked, but Virginia beat the teams on its schedule, including going 7-0 at home. Most recently, the team scored a season high 100-points in a 100-64 thrashing of Marshall.
In their 12 games to this point, Virginia has allowed more than 60-points just twice as the Cavaliers have one of the nation’s strongest defenses to go along with a solid shooting squad.
Most of Virginia’s scoring comes from the backcourt with guards Kyle Guy, De’Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome posting at least 14.2 PPG. All three are shooting more than 40-percent from the perimeter. After those three, there’s a big drop off in scoring.
Mamadi Diakite leads forwards in scoring with just 6.5 PPG though he’s sinking nearly 60-percent of his shots. He’s only got 3.1 RPG, too, as Virginia can be beat on the glass. Diakite and the 7’1” Jay Huff are the team’s primary defenders down low though Huff doesn’t get that much playing time, deferring to senior Jack Salt as the big man under the basket.
As for the other team in this matchup, Florida State sits at No.9 in both the AP and Coaches’ Poll although the KenPom isn’t quite as high on the Seminoles, ranking the team eight spots lower largely due to their weaker schedule to this point.
The Seminoles sit at 12-1 with their lone loss against Villanova in a game played down at ESPN’s Wide World of Sports in Walt Disney World.
In the loss, Florida State struggled to find consistency in its shooting, particularly from three-point range where as a whole the Seminoles were just 3-for-12. They lost the game 66-60.
The Seminoles aren’t a prolific offensive team overall, but then again, neither are the Cavaliers.
Florida State does have more PPG, but a similar shooting percentage from the floor. Virginia, however, is much better shooting from the outside.
Terrance Mann is the team’s only real big threat from the perimeter. The guard is the team’s leading scorer at 13.1 PPG. Trent Forrest and Mfiondu Kabengele are the only other two double-digit scorers on the team. There are, however, five more players with at least seven PPG.
Kabengele is the team’s primary offensive threat inside the paint, but Christ Koumadje is the key defender down low and at 7’4” towers over anybody and everybody. He’s a strong rebounder and key blocker. While his size hinders his athleticism, his mere presence creates matchup issues for other teams’ frontcourts.
Live Betting
Watch the battle on the perimeter early in this one to see how well FSU is able to hang in there against Virginia’s strong guards. Also watch to see how well the Seminoles do shooting in the first half. Florida State may have trouble finding open shots against a very strong Virginia defense.
It’ll be up to Kabengele and Koumadje to find ways to use their height inside to help overcome a disadvantage outside. The boards will also be key. FSU needs to find a way to get offensive rebounds for second and third chances against a strong defensive rebounding team in Virginia.
Leading up to game time and even after tip-off, keep up to date with all the live betting opportunities at BookMaker.eu.
Key Player
The Cavs have a deep crop of talented guards who run the offense. They’re excellent ball-handlers and help minimize turnovers. Florida State needs to be able to compete on the outside. Mann is the team’s leading scorer, a strong rebounder, and the one real threat shooting the ball on the outside for FSU despite only couple shots per game from three. He’s important, but the real key may by Trent Forrest.
The Cavaliers are a turnover-averse offense. It’ll be hard, but to get to Virginia, Florida State will need to be able to get the Cavs to turn the ball over a few teams. They’ll also need to stifle their perimeter shooting.
Forrest leads the Seminoles in steals. He’s not a good shooter outside, but he is a strong ball handler and will be needed in that capacity.
Seminoles vs. Cavaliers Live Betting
When it’s all said and done, the Cavaliers are just too good of a team. Look for Virginia to get the win in this home game, but count on it coming down to the wire.
Virginia has too many good shots outside that’ll spread the FSU defense. With that, the Cavaliers will be able to win the battle on the perimeter. Virginia also has enough inside to compete on the glass and defend the Seminole big men.
Look for a late run to propel the Cavaliers to victory over a Florida State team likely to experience a few mini mid-game shooting slumps. Virginia will win this one from beyond the arc with superior three-point shooting to go with the team’s impressive defense and good defensive rebounding.
Be sure to check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for this weekend’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Virginia 74, Florida State 70
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