After two weeks of intense action the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four with the National Semifinals taking place on Saturday, April 6. The No. 1 ranked team in the country and the NCAA futures favorite Connecticut Huskies steamrolled their way to the Final Four winning their four games by an average of nearly 28 points. They are a negative odds favorite to win their second straight NCAA Championship but first must get by Alabama. The Crimson Tide already knocked off one No. 1 seed beating North Carolina, 89-87, in the Sweet 16.
Half of the Final Four is comprised of No. 1 seeds with the Purdue Boilermakers reaching the third weekend of the Tournament. After getting bounced out of last year’s Tournament by a No. 16 seed, Purdue is looking to follow the path laid out by Virginia. In 2018 the Cavaliers were the first No. 1 seed to lose to a 16-seed but came back the following season to win the title. Purdue is two wins away from duplicating that with Cinderella North Carolina State standing in the way. The only reason why NC State’s odds are shorter than Alabama’s is because the Pack doesn’t play UConn in the semis. But history isn’t on their side since a No. 11 seed has never reached the National Championship game.
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NCAA Tournament Final Four Odds
Connecticut -208
Purdue +234
North Carolina State +1850
Alabama +1900
It’s hard not to go with UConn as a repeat national champion. The Huskies have been dominant all season and in the Tournament when the competition is supposedly stronger, they’ve been just as good if not better. There closest game was a 17-point win over Northwestern in the second round and it wasn’t even that close. The Huskies led by 22 at half and coasted over the final 20 minutes. Also, two of their victories were by at least 30 points. That isn’t too alarming, though, since the Huskies boasted the second-best point differential during the season at +17.
In a rematch of last year’s National Championship game the Huskies demolished San Diego State, 82-52, in the Sweet 16. And when it looked like Illinois was going to be a tough out, the Huskies caught fire turning a tie game into a rout by scoring 30 consecutive points.
To have any chance of winning a title Alabama will have to rely on the nation’s highest scoring offense. The Tide averages over 90 points and is just a tick under that in the Tournament. If they can’t score the likelihood of a short stay is good since their defensive rating is 306th in the country. Mark Sears averages 21.5 points and makes 43.4 percent of his triples.
Purdue boasts perhaps the best player in the country and the Boilermakers are playing with a chip on their shoulder after an embarrassing first round exit last year. They were the second No. 1 seed ever to lose to a No. 16 seed and that carried over. Zach Edey stuck around for another year to chase the ring as did several of his teammates, and if they don’t win the title, they will always be remembered for their loss to Fairleigh Dickinson as a 23.5-point favorite.
Edey has been as good if not better than the previous season when he was tabbed the National Player of the Year. He leads the nation averaging 25 points and is second with 12.2 rebounds per contest. He’s received plenty of support with Braden Smith, Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer all averaging double figures. And the starting five has been together for all 37 games this season giving the Boilermakers an edge in team chemistry.
All those fans rooting for the underdog have a great story in NC State. The Pack closed the regular season at 17-14 following four straight losses and wasn’t considered a threat to win the ACC tournament. They caught fire at the best time winning five games in five days to capture the league’s automatic bid and continuing that run through the Dance. If the Pack becomes the first double-digit seed to reach the championship game you can bet DJ Burns Jr. will have a hand in it. He scored 21 of his 29 points in the second half to beat Duke in the Elite 8 with an array of low post moves.
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