After a brief hiatus for the Big-12/SEC Challenge, the Baylor Bears and Oklahoma Sooners will get back to work in conference as they meet for a 9 p.m. ET tipoff in Norman on Monday. The Sooners will look to use this game to get back to .500 in conference.
It’s been a tough go in-conference for Oklahoma. Baylor’s found a bit more success, including an impressive win over Texas Tech, but can the Bears keep the conference winning streak alive? Baylor’s been a rather inconsistent team so far this season.
With both Oklahoma and Baylor heading in seemingly opposite directions, can a head-to-head meeting—particularly in at the Lloyd Noble Center—change their respective courses? Or will the Bears add another nice win to their resume to go along with a couple questionable losses?
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Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Date and Time: Monday, January 28, 2019, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, Oklahoma
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Bears vs. Sooners TV Coverage: ESPNU
It’s already been a rollercoaster of a season for the Bears. Baylor has shown how good a team it can be with big wins over Texas Tech and Iowa State, but the team’s also lost to Texas Southern, Wichita State and Stephen F. Austin. That’s a big up-and-down.
In conference, the Bears are a solid 4-2, falling to Kansas at home and TCU on the road. Heading into a weekend showdown with Alabama as part of the Big-12/SEC Challenge, Baylor had tallied three consecutive wins, including two on the road over Oklahoma State and West Virginia with the home victory over Texas Tech sandwiched in between.
On Monday against West Virginia, Baylor scored 85 in the win, the most the team’s scored since mid-November. The Bears are only tallying 72 PPG. The team plays a slower pace than many of the powerhouse offenses, but they’ve also struggled shooting consistently at times, sinking just 44.1-percent from the floor and 31.7-percent outside.
Against the Mountaineers questionable defense the team shot 50-percent from the floor with Makai Mason leading the way at 10-for-16 with 29 points. Even in a win against a more difficult Texas Tech defense, however, Baylor’s efficiency was much lower at just 41.4-percent though the team did well outside with Mason leading the way, sinking four three-pointers on his way to 16 points.
Mason is the team’s leading scorer and, along with King McClure, the main threats outside. The team’s a bit undersized, often going with a four-guard set, but the team is still getting some production on the glass from guys like Mario Kegler and Mark Vital.
Tristan Clark is the main man inside. The forward has the second most points on the team at 14.3 PPG, sinking 72.1-percent of his shots as nearly all are taken underneath the basket. He’s also a solid rebounder and has nearly half of the team’s blocks.
He’s crucial to the offense to provide a threat inside the paint, but just as important defensively and on the glass to help keep the opposition in check.
Speaking of the opposition, Oklahoma has recently fallen out of the top-25 lists. The team did top Oklahoma State on the road this week, 70-61, but prior to that the team had lost back-to-back games to Kansas State and Texas. Add in losses to Texas Tech and Kansas and the team in 3-4 in conference.
The Sooners are offensively comparable to the Bears with 73 PPG though they’ve been a bit more efficient shooting on the outside at 34.2-percent. In total, the offense is okay, but the defense is the team’s strength.
Oklahoma has 41 RPG and a nice balance of players able to get the key block or key steal when needed, but more so just able to minimize the opposition’s open shots.
Inside the paint, Brady Manek and Kristian Doolittle are the main players. Both have more than 6.5 RPG. Doolittle is the better shot inside though Manek can keep the defense honest by posting up and hitting shots outside.
On the outside, Christian James is the leading scorer with 16.5 PPG and is a good threat from three as is Aaron Calixte who stands under six-feet tall, but is an excellent ball handler and deep threat.
Overall, the team has just two players in the double-digits scoring with James and Manek, the latter at 11.3 PPG, but there are five more with at least six PPG as this team does well moving the ball around. Now they just need to turn their season around, at least as far as its conference play.
Live Betting
Really, this is a case of two teams going in opposite directions which is good news for Baylor and bad for Oklahoma.
The Sooners still rank out more favorably than the Bears given the season of work to date, but the gap is narrowing. KenPom as the adjusted efficiency margin gap between the two teams at 3.71 with the Sooners getting the edge.
When you break it down into offense and defense the key matchup to watch in this one will be Baylor’s ability to put points on the boards against Oklahoma. In some of the bigger upsets for the Bears, the offense out performed expectations.
Watch the shooting accuracy, namely outside, for the Bears early in this game. If they’re able to get open and sink some shots—while spreading the ball around—Baylor could find success. If, however, the team isn’t spread the ball and shooting is in the low 40-percent region, the Sooners could be on their way to a win.
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Key Player
Jared Butler is fifth on the Bears in scoring at 8.2 PPG and is sixth on the team in minutes, but the freshman guard has seemingly step up his game of late. In his last four games, he’s averaged 14.3 PPG with north of a steal a game and nearly four assist per contest, too.
Perhaps most notably, however, has been the guard’s recent success on the outside. Oklahoma represents a good defense which means the Bears need to find additional ways to produce points in this one, one of those ways in Butler on the perimeter.
Butler has 1.2 three-pointers per game this year, but has 12 in his last four games, that’s more than double his season average. He’s providing a nice threat from deep and shooting with solid efficiency, too.
If Butler can step up with another big performance outside, that opens up Mason and McClure on the perimeter and clears the inside for Clark.
Bears vs. Sooners Live Betting
The Sooners have already lost two games in conference that they shouldn’t have. This game against Baylor is closer. While it’s at home for Oklahoma, the Bears have played well on the road—sometimes—and are currently trending in a better direction.
Look for the Bears to pull this one out on the road. Baylor’s got Butler heating up to add to the likes of Mason, McClure and Mario Kegler. All three won’t stand out in this one, but look for solid numbers from two of them while Clark plays well enough inside despite some competition with Manek and Doolittle.
On the Oklahoma side, they may come away with a few more rebounds, but don’t the offense has been struggling and could continue down that path on Monday.
Check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for Monday’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Baylor 73, Oklahoma 67
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