As good as the Nevada Wolf Pack have been this season, their lead in the Mountain West Conference remains tenuous. One team close behind is the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, who missed a chance to get even at the top with a loss to San Diego State their last time out. Meanwhile, the Pack enjoyed a little break over the weekend and will look to continue their assault on the league with a visit to their in-state rival on Tuesday night.
Don't miss the hardwood action between the Nevada Wolf Pack and UNLV Runnin’ Rebels from the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, NV on Tuesday, January 29, 2019 beginning at 11 p.m. ET. The game will be televised on ESPN2.
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Nevada Wolf Pack OFF
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels OFF
Over/Under (Check Back Later)
Odds Analysis
This sets up as one of the bigger games of the MW season with plenty at stake for both sides. Nevada is the class of the league having lost just one game all season and ranked No. 7 in the country. But the Pack’s lead in the standings is only one game over three teams, including UNLV. We’ve seen the committee on Selection Sunday snub the MWC in the past and to insure that doesn’t happen again, the Pack needs to win as many games as possible. Of course, winning the conference tournament gets them into the dance but they’d rather leave zero margin for error.
Having six days off between games can be a good thing. The Pack hasn’t played since destroying Colorado State last week, hitting the century mark in a 40-point win. When things are going so well a team usually wants to keep playing, so that break in the schedule may have come at a bad time.
With the Pack off and Fresno State losing over the weekend, the Rebels had a chance to move into a tie atop the standings. They couldn’t get it done, though, falling on the road to San Diego State. UNLV is 8-3 at home this season and 4-0 at the T&M in league games. They haven’t played a team as capable as Nevada, though, and losses to Bucknell, Illinois and Air Force don’t give us much confidence in their ability to take down the Pack.
Player to Watch
A three-year starter for the Pack since transferring, Jordan Caroline has watched his numbers improve every season. It’s hard to standout on a team full of all-conference performers, but Caroline is the guy that makes the Pack go. He’s not only a leader, he’s the team’s leading scorer with talent to play at the next level.
Caroline has all the tools but tends to get overlooked playing in the MWC. Leading a team that’s lost once should get him more attention, as should his ability to do everything on the court. Caroline scored a season-high 26 points against Colorado State last time out and he’s dropped at least 15 points in all but one game this season. That one was a blowout win early in the season when he played the fewest minutes.
His 18.7 scoring average is third-best in the conference and his 9.7 rebounds are second. Caroline also shoots the ball extremely well converting over 49 percent of his field goals. He’s also an aggressive defender helping the Wolf Pack to the 38th best scoring defense in the country.
Key Stat
Valuing the basketball is a skill that players at the highest level haven’t mastered. The Wolf Pack could teach some good habits to other clubs. Nevada leads the Mountain West and ranks No. 6 nationally with 10 just turnovers per game and they typically dominate games by scoring off other team’s miscues. In their 100-60 romp over CSU last week, the Pack forced 21 turnovers while committing just seven of their own, leading to a 35-5 advantage in points off turnovers.
UNLV coughs up the ball nearly 14 times per game and while the margin doesn’t seem significant, the Pack has a way of making teams pay with its pressure defense that result in easy scoring opportunities the other way.
Free NCAA Basketball ATS Picks
You never know what to expect in a rivalry game and this is a big one in the state of Nevada. For a long time the Rebels owned the court in their state, but the Pack has had the edge recently and it doesn’t look like they are giving it up any time soon. The Pack’s starting five is the best in the MW with Caroline and the Martin brothers leading the way and they aren’t going to be distracted by the Rebels in this one.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Nevada 86, UNLV 70
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