The Michigan Wolverines are the cream of the crop in the Big Ten and will be tested yet again as the team travels to another conference rival in the Wisconsin Badgers for a Saturday afternoon showdown.
The Badgers play a style of basketball that lends itself to close games. That could come into play ATS if the Badgers keep the game close against Michigan, but it’s important to note that despite always being in the game, Wisconsin has struggled to find a way to get the close game wins with any regularity.
Can the Badgers take advantage of home court and play up to the competition, giving the Wolverines a run for their money? Or will Michigan continue to roll through the Big Ten schedule just like they did through the non-conference schedule?
NCAA Basketball Betting at Bookmaker.eu
Michigan Wolverines vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Date and Time: Saturday, January 19, 2019, 12 p.m. ET
Location: Kohl Center, Madison, Wisconsin
College Basketball Odds: Check Back Later
Wolverines vs. Badgers TV Coverage: ESPN
Michigan is quite simply just on a roll. This team has dominated its competition every step of the way and has won each game since the resumption of league play by double-digits. Most recently, the Wolverines beat Northwestern by 20.
Overall, the Wolverines remain undefeated; one of few teams still standing despite matchups against a number of ranked opponents like Villanova, North Carolina, Purdue, and Illinois. Granted, only the Villanova win came on the road. Still, this team has found a way to win regardless of venue.
Michigan is an elite defensive team, ranked third in adjusted defensive efficiency by that measure. Wisconsin’s offense has gone into hiding when truly tested. They faced a similarly elite defense in Virginia in November and scored just 46-points. Back to the Badgers in a moment.
As for the Wolverines, the defense is strong both inside the paint with Ignas Brazdeikis and Jon Teske as well as on the perimeter with Charles Matthews and Zavier Simpson.
Michigan plays a slower brand of basketball than most of the other top-ranked teams leading to a modest 74 PPG, but the team’s offense is efficient nonetheless.
Shooting 47.1-percent from the floor and 36.7-percent from the arc, the Wolverines have plenty of offensive firepower even for a team that relies on defense. Brazdeikis is the key scorer under the basket with 15.6 PPG and a strong inside presence.
Outside, Matthews and Jordan Poole are strong shots. Poole is particularly skilled on the perimeter. Matthews has scored more so far with 14.1 PPG to Poole’s 13.4 PPG though that is more based on opportunity. Matthews takes several more shots per game.
Overall, this is a strong, talented and versatile team. Defense is key, but the offense isn’t a slouch. The team can battle on the glass with anyone. Really, the team’s biggest weakness comes at the free throw line. Of course, depth could also come up if someone goes down. This team has just seven players with more than five minutes per contest.
Returning to the Badgers, Wisconsin will try to do on Saturday what the team couldn’t in November against Virginia and overcome the defensive pressure to find a way to make the big baskets late.
That’s been an issue for Wisconsin. The team seems to keep games close. Lately, that’s all they’ve done.
Wisconsin has lost four of its last five games, ending fewer than eight points down in all four of those losses.
Most recently, the Badgers fell to Maryland and looked dreadful early. They couldn’t sink anything in the first half and were 0-for-8 from the perimeter and just 7-for-26 overall. The team bounced back in the second half, but by then it was already too late.
Wisconsin needs to find a way to get a big win and get back on track. The team has the players to be much better than they’ve shown lately. Ethan Happ is a great player inside. Alongside Nate Reuvers it’s a nice tandem under the basket. Happ himself is averaging a double-double with 19.4 PPG and 10.4 RPG. Reuvers isn’t as strong of a rebounder or scorer, but he adds strong defense.
Outside, D’Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison are quality guards who can both shoot accurately outside. They’re the keys behind a very good 39.1-percent shooting percentage outside.
Unfortunately, beyond those four, there is a real drop off in talent on the team, leaving the fifth player on the floor—at least—lacking, at least compared to a team like Michigan.
Live Betting
Michigan is the No.2 team in the AP poll and sits fourth in the Coaches Poll, but the KenPom rating system is less optimistic about the team.
On the other side, Wisconsin—which finds itself excluded from both the AP and Coaches Poll top-25 rankings—is a bit of a KenPom favorite with the adjusted efficiency margin putting the Badgers at No.16 overall, gaining high marks on both offense and defense. Interestingly, it’s the highest rated team with more than four losses and the Badgers have six.
Despite the seeming bump in this analytical system, the Badgers are still the lesser of the two teams on both sides of the ball, but this is still a defensive powerhouse above anything.
Watch the scoring and shooting on both sides early on to help determine the totals and exploit the live betting opportunities at BookMaker.eu. If this is a battle of defenses, it’s Michigan’s game, but if Wisconsin can get someone—or more—shooting a hot hand, that’s when it could become a much more interesting game.
Key Player
Wisconsin needs to find someone other than Happ, Trice, Davison and Reuvers to keep Michigan on its toes. The Wolverines aren’t as deep as some teams, but they go seven deep in quality players. Realistically, the Badgers are just four deep.
The other starter, Khalil Iverson would be the key, but his playing time was cut down against Maryland and could see further reduction in minutes. He’s been held scoreless in two of his last three games and has 10 combined points over his last four.
Instead of Iverson, the key player may instead be Kobe King. The redshirt freshman guard made a conscious effort in the recent loss to Maryland to be more aggressive towards the basket. It only resulted in five points, but he’s seeing an uptick in playing time. He needs to take advantage.
Michigan is a hard opponent for anyone, but he needs to be able to keep the Wolverines honest to spread the defense and potentially open shots for the big boys in Happ and Trice.
Wolverines vs. Badgers Live Betting
The trends indicate this should be an easy win for Michigan. The Wolverines are rolling and the Badgers are struggling.
Wisconsin is losing at home and on the road right now so venue probably doesn’t matter much in this one. The team was slow out of the gate against Maryland and recovered. If the same happens here, there is no recovering to make it even close.
Look for Happ to play well, but this team needs another treat and it doesn’t seem likely to get one. Michigan’s defense will shut down the Badger offense. At the same time, the Wolverines have seen their offensive out-put—at least in terms of scoring—tick up in recent games.
Check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for this weekend’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Michigan 76, Wisconsin 62
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