The Virginia Cavaliers are no longer undefeated, but they’re still one of college hoops’ best teams as they journey to South Bend to take on a Notre Dame Fighting Irish team in a big of a transition.
The Irish are traditionally a solid opponent, but Notre Dame hasn’t had a good season to date, going 11-8 overall, but a meager 1-5 in ACC play. Save a win over Boston College, it’s been a rough transition out of the non-conference schedule and into conference play for the Irish.
On the other side of this matchup, Virginia bounced back nicely after a narrow loss to Duke to end an undefeated run and will look to keep the new winning streak going on Saturday with a win over Notre Dame. The Irish do have home court advantage in the game, but that’s not likely to help the team out all that much as Notre Dame will enter the game as sizeable underdogs. Can they at least cover the spread or will this game be over nearly as soon as it begins?
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Virginia Cavaliers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Date and Time: Saturday, January 26, 2019, 1 p.m. ET
Location: Purcell Pavilion, South Bend, Indiana
College Basketball Odds: Check Back Later
Cavaliers vs. Fighting Irish TV Coverage: CBS
The Cavs may not be undefeated, but they’re still an elite team. The squad sits third in the AP and Coaches Poll and atop the KenPom adjusted efficiency margin ratings.
Defense is the primary strength of this team. The team allowed 72-points to Duke, a team that is one of the elite offenses in the country. Outside of that game, Virginia hasn’t allowed more than 59-points in a game since December. In all 18 games played to date, the Cavaliers haven’t allowed more than those 72 points in any game.
Virginia is excellent at slowing down the pace of play and is full of fundamentally sound players able to control the ball.
Offensively, the Cavaliers are a rather efficient team despite a solid, yet unspectacular 74 PPG. The Cavs are shooting 47.8-percent from the floor and are really strong on the perimeter with a 39.4-percent shooting average on the outside.
The backcourt for this team is stacked. Kyle Guy leads the way in scoring though De’Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome all have at least 13.1 PPG and a 40-percent shooting mark from three-point range. Hunter is the most accurate shot from the floor of the three though Guy is best on the outside. All three are solid on the glass while Jerome is an excellent defensive threat and ball handler with 4.8 APG and 1.7 SPG, leading the team in both categories.
Inside the paint, Virginia has Mamadi Diakite as a quality option along with the 7’1” Jay Huff and 6’10” Jack Salt. Those two are the big men inside and provide some good defense and an intimidating presence. Salt plays way more time on the floor with Huff spelling him for just under 10 minutes a game.
Virginia is at its when its sinking shots outside and from mid-range. The team doesn’t push to the basket too much offensively or take a ton of shots from underneath, but it has the size to put one up after a key rebound.
While Virginia comes into this game off a bounce back win following their first loss of the season in a tight 72-70 battle against fellow elite team, Duke, the Irish will be trying to snap a three-game losing streak.
Notre Dame has generally looked overmatched in the ACC schedule. The team is just 1-5 in conference with the lone win a three-point victory at home over Boston College. John Mooney scored 27 in that win with 12 rebounds while Prentiss Hubb adding 16-points.
Since then, Notre Dame has lost to UNC, NC State and Georgia Tech. Over the team’s last seven games, it’s only topped 70-points once.
After the big game against Boston College, Hubb scored 18 in the loss to UNC, but put up a goose egg in 23 minutes on the court in the most recent game. The freshman guard has shown flashes, but has been largely inconsistent.
That’s true of the most of the team aside form Mooney. The forward is the biggest scorer with 14.4 PPG and has 10.8 RPG to go with it. He’s nabbed a double-double in five straight games now and has even shown the ability to shoot from the outside on occasion.
Still, Mooney’s the lone real threat inside, too. The rest of the team primarily plays on the outside including T.J. Gibbs and D.J. Harvey, the only other two Irish averaging double-digit points.
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Virginia isn’t involved in a ton of high scoring games as they like to slow the opposition down and limit their output that way, but the Cavaliers can shoot well, particularly outside and rank No.4 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. The team sits at 120.9 according to that metric, well over the average. The team is at 85.6 on the adjusted defensive number.
The Irish are far less impressive and sit at +9.07 in adjusted efficiency margin compared to Virginia’s 35.23 mark. Notre Dame ranks above average offensively thanks to Mooney, Gibbs and Harvey at 109.2, but at 100.1, they’re right about the middle of the pack in all of college hoops defensively. Virginia’s offense could take advantage and make this a bit more high-scoring than some may anticipate.
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Key Player
Mooney is the stabilizing force for the Irish. The last time the Irish won, it took a huge game form Mooney and someone else stepping up as well. In that case, it was Hubb.
Mooney, however, is the key here. The Cavaliers have a couple big guys inside that’ll provide some matchup issues for Mooney as he tries to push towards the basket. The likes of Diakite, Salt and Huff will also give Mooney fits on the boards. Notre Dame needs Mooney to play well on the glass to give the team second chances on offense and help limit Virginia on defense. Just like the Irish need Mooney to score, they also need him to rebound and help Notre Dame will the battle on the glass.
The Irish aren’t as good of a defensive team as the Cavs and they don’t shoot as well either. Mooney’s the team’s biggest offensive weapon and he needs to put the team on his shoulders to keep them in the game.
Cavaliers vs. Fighting Irish Live Betting
Notre Dame is having a ton of trouble in the ACC and Virginia is, arguably, one of the conference toughest foes. The Irish couldn’t beat UNC or even Georgia Tech. There’s no reason to expect the unexpected here.
Virginia should be able to easily topple Notre Dame. Mooney will get his points, but the rest of the Irish offense may have trouble finding many open chances against a strong defense.
Meanwhile, look for a the Virginia backcourt to shoot well with Guy, Hunger, Jermone and even Braxton Key all shooting well with Diakite, Salt and Huff doing their thing inside.
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NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Virginia 77, Notre Dame 65
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