It was an easy week last week for the Iowa Hawkeyes who topped both Penn State and Illinois to improve to 5-3 in conference with their fifth straight win. They’ll be tested, however, on Thursday night when they host a much more difficult opponent in the Michigan State Spartans.
The Spartans are, arguably, the best team in the conference and certainly amongst the top couple as they having lost since November, at least going into Monday. The Spartans will be on the road for this one. Iowa take advantage of that and hang in with the Spartans?
Despite being at home, an Iowa win would still be an upset in this one, but the Hawkeyes have the offense to hang with the Spartans, particularly considering the injury concerns for Michigan State. But, is that enough? We are in for a great one on Thursday night.
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Michigan State Spartans vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Date and Time: Thursday, January 24, 2019, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, Iowa
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Spartans vs. Hawkeyes TV Coverage: FS1
Michigan State has won 11 straight going into Monday and according to many have jumped Michigan for the top team in the Big-Ten following the latter’s recent loss.
In any case, the Spartans are still one of the elite teams in the conference and a KenPom darling ranking third in adjusted efficiency margin. Michigan State is regarded as both an excellent offensive team and a strong defensive one.
Efficiency is the name of the game for the Michigan State offense. As a team, the Spartans are shooting 50.1-percent from the floor and 39.3-percent from three point range, both excellent figures.
As a whole, the team is scoring 85 PPG, but the offensive output has taken a downturn lately as the team scored just 70 in a win over Nebraska last Thursday. The Spartans haven’t scored more than 77 in three straight games.
It should come as no surprise that a large part of that downturn is a result of the absences of Joshua Langford and Kyle Ahrens. The latter of those two could be back on the court as he’s recovered from a back injury, but the bulky ankle of the other should keep him sidelined a bit longer.
Without Langford, the backcourt for Michigan State is basically Cassius Winston and Matt McQuaid. It could certainly be worse.
Winston leads the team in scoring with 18.2 PPG and is an excellent point guard with 7.3 APG. Both he and McQuaid are excellent outside shots, spreading the court.
As for the front court, Nick Ward leads the way in scoring with 16.6 PPG. Xavier Tillman and Kyle Goins are lesser offensive players, but both can sink a few shots while providing excellent production on the glass and blocking. The team is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation with 44 RPG and a strong defensive team, particularly inside with six blocks a game.
On the other side of this matchup, Iowa isn’t ranked quite as well, but the team is 16-3 overall this season. Of course, all three of those loses have come in conference play. Those three losses, however, came in the team’s first three conference games.
Iowa is now in the midst of a five-game winning streak including wins over ranked teams—at least at the time—like Nebraska and Ohio State.
The Hawkeyes, at the moment, are a fringe top-25 team. The offense for the team is strong, but the defense is just barely above average according to KenPom with a rating of 99.8.
Iowa doesn’t have as efficient of a team shooting, but is still sinking a solid percent of their shots inside and out with a very reliable shot from the free-throw line.
The Hawkeyes have a strong starting five with each averaging at least 10 PPG. There’s a bit of a scoring drop off from there, however.
The frontcourt is a strength of this team, at least offensively. Tyler Cook leads the team in scoring with 16.5 PPG. He’s missed some time, but should be good for Thursday’s game. Luka Garza is the team’s second leading scorer.
While the frontcourt can score, the team ranks behind Michigan State by a considerable margin on the boards and in blocking. Nicholas Baer is a weapon there off the bench. Cook is a solid rebounder himself, but the team is certainly a little light there comparatively.
On the outside, Joe Wieskamp, Jordan Bohannon and Isaiah Moss are all quality players, but none of them are as good as Winston all though all can shoot well from the perimeter.
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The potential mismatch here is with the Iowa defense trying to slow the Michigan State offense. Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, Langford for will still be out which does make things easier, but the Spartans have been able to keep cruising even with him on the shelf.
That said, the point production has obviously dipped of late. Iowa will try to keep the Spartans offense at bay, but Winston and Ward still give MSU a formidable tandem with a versatile backcourt player and notable inside presence.
A return of Kyle Ahrens should help stabilize things a bit for Michigan State, but depth on the outside remains a bit of an issue.
Watch to see how well the Spartans are able to find open shots early and whether Iowa can suppress the offense bit. If so, they’ve got a good shot with an excellent offense of their own.
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Key Player
McQuaid is the key player in this one for the Spartans while Langford remains on the bench.
The senior guard has seen his playing time spike without Langford, playing as many as 37 minutes on Thursday against Nebraska though he scored just two points—both on free throws—in the game. He was 0-for-6 from the floor, missing both his shots on the outside.
Winston stepped up in that game with 29 points and Ward was good, but without McQuaid shooting well, the team was a bit light outside. Fortunately, they came away with the win, but 70 points scored was the lowest total for Michigan State in a month and a half.
Iowa has the offense to keep pace with the Spartans, just not the defense. If McQuaid is on his game and shooting well, that makes this MSU offense nearly impossible to contain.
Spartans vs. Hawkeyes Live Betting
The Spartans offense isn’t going to explode in this one, but look for a solid game from McQuaid, helping take pressure off Winston inside and the collection of forwards inside, led by Ward.
Michigan State is the better team in most facets of the game. Look for them to outshoot the Hawkeyes and out opportunity them, winning the battle of the boards rather handily. A couple big blocks should just secure the victory.
Iowa is a good team and they are playing at home. That’ll help the Hawkeyes stay in this one, but in the end, the Spartans are just too balanced and deep, even with Langford still sidelined.
Check out all of the live betting at BookMaker.eu for Thursday’s college basketball action.
NCAA Basketball Score Prediction: Michigan State 77, Iowa 70
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