Separated by just a few miles in the Triangle area, the North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils formed an explosive rivalry. Since both schools have been among the best annually in basketball that sport tends to attract the biggest following, so Saturday’s matchup is getting plenty of attention despite both teams having subpar seasons. Well, subpar for them. Both teams have won over 68 percent of their games with the Dookies looking for payback after dropping the last two meetings. The Heels spoiled Coach K’s final home game then ended his illustrious career with a Final Four win.
This college basketball game will go down Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC. The game will be televised live on ESPN. We'll have NCAA Basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball schedule.
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Odds Analysis
The Heels had several players from last year’s national runner-up team returning putting them atop the preseason rankings. They didn’t disappoint winning their first five games, but some were closer than most expected. UNC got a scare from Gardner-Webb eking out a 72-66 home win as a 22.5-point favorite. And they narrowly edged Portland 89-81 laying 15 points. After that victory over the Pilots, UNC dropped four straight going from No. 1 in the land to out of the rankings in a matter of weeks. They recovered winning 10 of 12 games before falling to Pitt on Wednesday for the second time this season. Overall the Heels are 15-7 SU and 7-14-1 ATS.
The ACC has always been a strong basketball conference and some could argue this season is the best it’s ever been. When these programs are middle-of-the-road halfway through the league campaign there’s something going on. And in a rare occurrence neither team is nationally ranked. Duke has shown flashes of brilliance but also stumbled against lesser foes, which could be a result of youth and constant turnover. They won 10 of their first 12 games losing only to ranked Kansas and Purdue. Duke won its second straight and 11th in a row at home beating Wake on Monday 75-73. They failed to cover the line and are just 2-9 ATS in their previous 11 games.
North Carolina Tar Heels
UNC’s run to last season’s national championship game included an 81-77 win over Duke in the semifinals, sending Coach K riding off into the sunset. A loss to Kansas a few days later ended the Heels’ season. Looking to secure the hardware, four key players from the squad returned to Chapel Hill making the Heels the early favorite to cut down the nets. And while they still might, it’s been a tougher than expected road.
The experienced roster will mesh with young talent and the Heels will be a force come tournament time. Armando Bacot, Leaky Black, R.J. Davis and Caleb Love all started that semifinal game last season and returned for another go. Bacot, Love and Davis all average at least 16 points to anchor the offense. They’ve also played strong defense holding their last seven opponents to fewer than 70 points while cashing the UNDER in six straight.
Duke Blue Devils
It doesn’t seem to matter who coaches or who plays, the Blue Devils have a distinct home court advantage. And more times than not they seem to get the lucky bounce or the opportune call. Duke won its 11th straight at Cameron Indoor taking down Wake Forest 75-73 on Monday night. They last two home wins were each by two points failing to cover the closing line both times. The Dookies are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
We got used to seeing talented scorers in a Duke uniform making us believe offense was the name of the game. Most recently guys like Paolo Banchero and Zion Williamson to Grayson Allen and further back to Christian Laettner and Danny Ferry. Anyway, scoring has always been a part of Duke’s basketball culture. They can still score, but intensity on the other side of the ball has been turned up. Allowing an average of just 63.7 points has led to the UNDER going 5-2-1 in their last three games. And 7-foot center Kyle Filipowski is a force on both ends. He averages 15.8 points and 9.5 rebounds collecting a double-double in five of his last six games.
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I like UNC’s experience but this game is all about emotion and Duke is going to be all emotional facing the team that ruined the storybook ending to Coach K’s career. Oh, and that Filipowski kid is really good with the Heels having no one to offer much resistance on the defensive end. Getting his first taste of the rivalry, Filipowski goes off in a Duke win, though points will be tougher to come by.
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