The North Carolina Tar Heels possess three road wins in ACC play to this point of the season. The first came at Miami by a grand total of two points as 3.5-point favorites. The second took place at PITT where the Heels beat the Panthers 75-65 as 3.5-point chalk. The third went down at Cameron Indoor where Roy Williams’ troops disposed of a Duke Blue Devils team currently on the outside looking into the NCAA Tournament field. None of those teams are current Big Dance qualifiers. Neither is the Syracuse Orange who will host North Carolina in the rival’s second meeting after falling 81-75 as 5-point Chapel Hill underdogs back on January 12. UNC’s “MO” to this point has been taking care of business at home and struggling on the road. That however all changed most recently when it got embarrassed at home by Marquette. Does that mean the Tar Heels reverse the script and excel in this road spot knowing full well their tourney chances hinge upon the final outcome? I’ll pay up to find out!
This ACC matchup is set to go down live on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET from the Carrier Dome on Monday, March 1, 2021. BookMaker.eu will have NCAA basketball odds available for this and every game lined up for Big Monday’s college basketball slate.
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Odds Analysis
Syracuse did just about everything right in the first showdown with the Tar Heels. It shot 47 percent from the field and drained 10 of 29 shots from beyond the arc. It also nailed 9 of 12 shots from the charity stripe. It committed less fouls on the road and held UNC to a 40 percent conversion rate as well as a 5 of 24 showing from downtown. Where it failed miserably however came in the rebounding department and that in and of itself proved to be the reason why the Cuse failed to win and just missed out on covering the number. North Carolina dominated the rebounding battle winning it 43-28. Most bothersome were the 19 caroms reeled in at the offensive end of the court. The Cuse best figure out how to put up a bigger fight on the glass this time around, or else it will fall for the eleventh time in the last 12 meetings with the Tar Heels (4-6-1 ATS).
North Carolina Tar Heels
After taking the wood to the Louisville Cardinals the game prior, the Tar Heels spit the bit in a huge way last time out at home against the Golden Eagles. Roy Williams was none too pleased. With that, the Tar Heels saw their two-game SU and ATS win streak come to a screeching halt. In the process, their NCAA Tournament prospects got even dicier. The team as a whole was lethargic right from the opening tip in allowing Marquette to bolt out to a quick first half lead and eventually take a commanding 45-29 advantage into the break. Those that thought UNC was a lock to make a game of it in the second half only saw their bankroll dwindle even more after UNC won the half 41-38 but grossly failed to cover the -8.5 2H impost.
Syracuse Orange
Since getting out to an ugly 1-3 SU and ATS start in ACC play, the Orange have been playing a much more competitive brand of basketball. After falling at PITT by 20 points, Jimmy Boeheim’s kids went on to log successive home wins and covers against Miami and Virginia Tech. Since then, the team has gone 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS with the three defeats coming against Virginia, Clemson and most recently Duke in a game it got severely outplayed in. It will return from Saturday’s road tilt at Georgia Tech owners of a five-game home winning streak with the last three dubs coming against NC State, BC and Notre Dame. Syracuse has come out triumphant in 11 of its 12 played home games to date (6-6 ATS).
North Carolina vs. Syracuse Prediction
You have to go back to February of last season to find the last time the Orange were installed home underdogs. It’s a role the team hasn’t fared well in over the years failing to win any of the last six instances. Making matters even worse, they only logged one pointspread cover during that stretch. Having said that, I will jump at the opportunity to back the Orange in this spot should linemakers post an inflated number on the more popular name brand. KenPom has this game lined a pick ‘em. I’ve got Syracuse laying a possession. I took the points with the Cuse in the first meeting and suffered a very tough beat in the game’s closing moments. The Orange owes me a winning ticket here! UNC doesn’t deserve to go dancing this season; jus’ saying!
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