The UCLA Bruins are back in the Sweet 16 for the second time in as many years under Mick Cronin’s watch. Only this time, online sportsbooks expect them to advance into the Elite Eight as opposed to last season when they went off the board as 7-point underdogs against the Alabama Crimson Tide. That being said, they’re less than possession favorites versus a North Carolina Tar Heels team that matches up extremely well against them both in the paint and along the perimeter. While UNC has had its issues defensively, nobody can argue with the offensive clinics the offense has put forth in the NCAA tournament. UCLA’s No. 13 ranked defense is sure to have its hands full in this matchup enough to the point that I think the Tar Heels have a shot at busting even more brackets by pulling out the upset. Surprisingly the betting market agrees with that sentiment as evidenced by the betting line decreasing since first hitting the board.
Take this Sweet 16 matchup in live on CBS at 9:39 p.m. ET from the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA on Friday, March 25, 2022. BookMaker.eu will have NCAA basketball odds available for this and every game lined up for today’s NCAA Tournament schedule.
NCAA Tournament Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Carolina Tar Heel +2.5
UCLA Bruins -2.5
Total 141.5
Odds Analysis
The Bruins opened 3-point neutral court favorites with the total lined at 142.5. Both the side and total have seen some action with this game being played closer to Chapel Hill than Los Angeles. The point spread is down half a point by way of 60 percent of the bets and 57 percent of the money taking the points with the Heels. UNC didn’t fare well as underdogs up to three points this season in going 1-3 SU and ATS with the over cashing in three times. On the flipside, UCLA went 2-1 SU and ATS the three times it was lined up to 3-point favorites defeating Villanova and St. Mary’s while losing to Oregon. Though North Carolina has averaged 94 points in two Madness bouts, the total dropped a full point to 141.5; looks like someone out there respects the hell out of the Bruins defense!
North Carolina Tar Heels
When filling out my bracket before the tourney tipped off, I felt UNC would be a problem for Marquette. Never in my wet and wildest did I think they’d dispose of the Golden Eagles by 32 points and put 90+ on the board in the process. Then it went out and dropped 42 on Baylor in the first half before nearly squandering a commanding second half lead only to need overtime to come out on top. Regardless, the offense is playing with its hair on fire right now! Brady Manek won’t be forced to serve any type of suspension for the garbage flagrant 2 foul and ejection that nearly cost his team against the Bears. That’s great news for Hubert Davis and Co. considering he’s led the way in the postseason by averaging better than 21 points per game.
UCLA Bruins
If not for that huge 3-pointer Tyger Campbell splashed down in the closing minutes against Akron, the Bruins could be home right now. But he did, and then the team went out and took it to the St. Mary’s Gaels who proved to suffer from being tabbed round two’s trendy dog. There’s talent littered up and down this roster, but it enters this tilt concerned about Jaime Jacquez Jr.’s ankle injury suffered late against St. Mary’s. He’s as big a gamer as they come which means he’ll likely be in the starting lineup. That being said, how much can that gimpy ankle handle running up and down the court with the nation’s 31st fastest team? My guess is it won’t! He’s currently the team’s leading scorer in the postseason and his contributions will be sorely missed if not at least 80 percent.
Betting Prediction
With UCLA likely to match points with the Tar Heels regardless of No. 24 being able to offer up at least half his postseason production, why is the betting line stagnant? Why hasn’t the betting public bought into the Bruins being the short favorite in this matchup? It’s because UCLA is going to lose this game. The team has been playing with fire due to injuries all season long, and I think it finally catches up to them in this spot. While UCLA has the bodies to bang with Armando Bacot down low, it will only be a matter of time until both Cody Riley and Myles Johnson are bounced due to foul trouble per usual. Once that occurs, UNC will own a distinct advantage down low that will allow for some kick outs to wide open shooters. Look for Manek and company to make them pay for it in a big way! This one will be close midway through the second half before UNC pulls away to punch a ticket back to the Elite eight for the first time since winning it all back in 2017.
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