On the verge of being ousted from the Top-25, the Kansas Jayhawks need to start stringing wins together if Bill Self’s team is to be taken seriously as the month of March approaches. One of the reasons for KU’s fall from grace is tonight’s opponent; the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Cade Cunningham and his teammates upset Kansas back on January 12 when they fended off a furious Jayhawks comeback to log the 75-70 outright win and cover as 3.5-point home dogs. It was the fifth time in the Jayhawks last eight visits to Stillwater that they came out on the wrong side of the scoreboard at online sportsbooks. It’s however been a much different story back home in the Phog where Kansas has tallied eight wins and five covers the last 10 times it hosted the rivalry. That includes each of the last two seasons when it covered as decided double-digit favorites. OKST swept the regular season rivalry from Kansas back in 2018 to win for only the second time ever in Lawrence since the Big 12’s inception back in 1996-97. They’ll be hard-pressed to repeat that feat in this spot with Kansas out for revenge.
Take this Big 12 matchup in live on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET from the Phog Allen Fieldhouse on Monday, February 8, 2021. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on Big Monday’s college basketball schedule.
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Odds Analysis
The Cowboys have partaken in eight games away from home. Of those matchups, they’ve gone off the board favored to win five times and logged 4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS records. One of those defeats occurred last time out at TCU where it dropped a high scoring 81-78 matchup in a game that shattered the closing O/U of 140.5. In doing so, Oklahoma State has cashed over tickets at an 11-4-1 rate for the season. It’s matchup against the Jayhawks also went over the closing number; albeit by half a point. Kansas enters this tilt having taken three straight in front of its limited home fan base since getting skunked by the Texas Longhorns to open the New Year. Unfortunately, they were only able to muster one cover during that stretch with it coming last time out against the in-state rival K-State Wildcats. For the season, Kansas stands a near perfect 8-1 SU as a host but has only amassed a total of three covers with the under 6-2 in those matchups.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Defense has been an issue for OK-State in spots this season. After just giving up 77 points at home to Arkansas its previous game, the Cowboys allowed the poor shooting Horned Frogs to light them up for a 49 percent success rate mostly due to TCU’s guards streaking to the hoop for numerous uncontested lay-ups. A pair proved costly late with a game tying lay-up scored with only 17 seconds remaining, and then another with an and-one added to seal the deal for TCU with only a few ticks remaining. Cade Cunningham would log a team-high 19 points on 5 of 13 shooting with 15 points accrued in the second half after being saddled with two quick fouls in the first half to force him out of the action. His 18 points and seven rebounds helped Oklahoma State defeat KU in the first meeting, and Mike Boynton will need his stud freshman to log even more minutes in the rematch if the Cowboys are to bust out the brooms.
Kansas Jayhawks
Losers in four of their last five and just getting pantsed by the Tennessee Volunteers in the Big 12/SEC Challenge over the weekend, Kansas sorely needed to come up with a morale boosting win when it returned home for the “Sunflower Showdown” against Kansas State. KU bolted out to a 9-0 lead before allowing the Wildcats to get back in the game. They’d then go on a spurt at the end of the first half to take a 33-25 lead into the break. It was all Kansas over the game’s final 20 minutes as it went on an 18-3 run and kept Kansas State scoreless for seven minutes to cruise to the 74-51 win and cover as decided 18-point favorites. David McCormack went for a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds, while Christian Braun also added 18 by way of connecting on 4 of 9 shots from beyond the arc. KU’s defense only allowed a paltry 34 percent conversion rate which allowed under bettors to cash yet another ticket with ease.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas Prediction
Though it lost the first meeting, look for Kansas to be lined favorites in the 5-6 point range with the total once again set in the mid-140s for the rematch. The first meeting saw both squads put on an offensive clinic over the game’s first 20 minutes. OKST would end up taking a 46-35 lead into halftime. From there, things slowed down considerably and it had everything to do with the Jayhawks defense taking over the game. KU would go on a 20-2 run to take a 70-67 lead with just over a minute remaining by way of flustering the Cowboys offense with its zone schemes. Though the Cowboys ultimately went on to win the game due to some late-game heroics, Kansas will have the defensive game plan devised to keep Cunningham and company in check over the rematch’s entirety. Oklahoma State tallied 37 fastbreak points to KU’s eight, and that’s something that won’t happen this time around. Look for those defensive adjustments to allow for this game to be played at KU’s preferred pace which should in turn lead to another low scorer playing out in the Phog that likely results in a Kansas win.
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