Saturday Opening Line Report - Elite Eight Picks

By  Jonathan Willis

Saturday, March 30th, 2019

We started with 68 teams, and now we are down to just eight. The Elite Eight will kick off on Saturday afternoon, and the final eight teams in the NCAA Tournament are looking to punch their tickets to the Final Four in Minneapolis, Minnesota. It’s been a very chalky tournament, but a No. 1 seed finally went down when Auburn shot the lights out against North Carolina on Friday night. Texas Tech and Purdue are both looking to carry the banner for non-No. 1 seeds.

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NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Betting

Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (GONZ -4.5, O/U 136.5)

There has been a decent bit of movement on both the side and the total already. Gonzaga was initially a four-point favorite per the oddsmakers, but that number has since moved by a half-point. We’ve seen a lot of movement on the under too. The total was originally set at 139.5, and it has moved down a full three points since open.

These have been arguably the two most impressive teams in the tournament. Gonzaga was awarded a No. 1 seed after finishing the regular season with a 30-3 record. The Bulldogs’ three losses came against NCAA Tournament teams, and they were the only team to beat Duke when the Blue Devils were at full strength.

Gonzaga has covered the opening line in all three of its NCAA Tournament games thus far. However, the Bulldogs didn’t cover the closing line in their Second Round win over Baylor. That line jumped from -11 to -14.5 over the course of a day. The Bulldogs had little trouble covering in the last round against Florida State too. Two of their three tournament games have sailed under the total, and that might be part of the reason that the sharps are hitting the under hard.

The Red Raiders split the regular season Big 12 title with Kansas State, but the NCAA Committee thought more of Texas Tech and gave them a higher seed despite a stunning loss to West Virginia at the Big 12 Conference Tournament. That proved to be a shrewd move given Texas Tech’s performance to this point.

Texas Tech has jumped all over teams in the second half, and this defense is the best in the nation. The Red Raiders are ranked No. 1 in total defense according to Ken Pomeroy, and they have given up 57, 58, and 44 points in three NCAA Tournament games. Texas Tech covered all three games and the under cashed in all three tilts as well.

Basketball Betting Bonus

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Purdue Boilermakers (UVA -4.5, O/U 126.5)

Tony Bennett has had a ton of success at Virginia, but that has not translated into deep postseason runs. This is only the Cavaliers’ second trip to the Elite Eight under Bennett, and they are looking to make their first trip to the Final Four since 1984. Purdue has not made the Final Four since 1980, so one of these two teams will be ending a long drought in that regard.

Virginia has not been too impressive this season, yet the Wahoos have moved past their demons. They survived a first half scare from Gardner-Webb in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament, and beat Oklahoma and Oregon to get here. The Cavaliers are just 1-2 ATS, but their defense has been phenomenal in giving up 52 PPG in the NCAA Tournament to put all three games under.

The Boilermakers are 3-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, and they have been on fire from the floor. They lit up both Villanova and Tennessee, going 16-30 from beyond the arc against Nova and hitting 15 of 31 threes against the Vols. Both of those games went well over the total.

The total has fallen a point since the opening line came out in this one.

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