This is your last chance to bet college basketball before March Madness begins in earnest on Thursday. There are six conference championship games to bet on Sunday, and they are all early afternoon games as they must finish up before the Selection Committee determines the field of 68 teams for the NCAA Tournament. Every single game has seen at least a small move towards the under, with the total in both the Big 10 Championship Game and SEC Championship Game dropping by four points since open last night.
Ivy League Championship Game
Harvard +4.5 vs. Yale
Yale has been the best team in the Ivy League for most of the season, but the Elis have not had good luck against their arch rivals. Harvard beat Yale by 16 points at home in early February, and the Crimson beat the Elis 88-86 in New Haven three weeks later. Harvard’s ability to beat Yale in a high-scoring up-tempo game and a low-scoring down-tempo game has me liking their chances a lot, and even more so when you consider that they overcame losing the turnover edge both times. The Crimson’s ability to dominate the glass has been key, and that should be a major factor once more.
SEC Championship Game
Auburn +4.5 vs. Tennessee
These are some feisty Tigers. Auburn was able to outlast Florida to narrowly advance to the final yesterday, and now the Tigers are looking to beat Tennessee for the second time this season to win the SEC. Both teams are looking for their first SEC Tournament title in more than three decades, but Auburn has had a much easier path to the finals. Even though this will be Auburn’s fourth game in four days, Tennessee had to face tougher teams in Mississippi State and Kentucky, and that will show here.
Atlantic 10 Championship Game
Saint Bonaventure -1 vs. Saint Louis
The Bonnies have played one less game than the Billikens have, and I think that will give them a bigger advantage than usual here. It’s hard enough to win four games in four days, but it’s even harder to do it in a different time zone. The A-10 Tournament is being held in Brooklyn and the combination of distance and the increased workload will lead to an underwhelming effort from St. Louis here. St. Bonaventure beat St. Louis by nine last week, so I’m a bit surprised the Bonnies aren’t favored by more.
AAC Championship Game
Under 127.5 in Houston vs. Cincinnati
The two previous meetings between these schools have been hard-fought affairs. Houston and Cincinnati both pride themselves on their defense, and points will be hard to come by throughout this one. The first meeting between these teams saw just 123 points scored, and playing three games in three days will have its affect on both sides here.
Familiarity will play a part too. Since this is the third meeting between these two schools this season, Cincinnati and Houston both know what the other team wants to do on offense. That should lead to less open looks.
Big 10 Championship Game
Michigan State -1 vs. Michigan
The Spartans have already knocked off the Wolverines twice this season, and I think they’ll make it three for three here. Michigan State might be the best rebounding team in the country now that Nick Ward is back in the lineup. Ward is the best big man on the Spartans, and his play in the paint has frustrated opposing big men throughout the year. The fact that Michigan State has already beaten Michigan twice without him in the lineup speaks volumes to how deep the Spartans are, and with Ward back on the floor, I don’t see Michigan scoring enough to keep this one competitive.
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