If you have been betting underdog moneylines at the NCAA Tournament, you have been getting killed. There have been no surprising upsets in the tournament thus far, and every team that was favored yesterday advanced into the Sweet 16. Even the double-digit seeds that won in the first round of the tournament were all favored by 4 points or less when the line closed, so we really haven’t had much madness in March. I don’t expect that to really change on Sunday.
2018-19 March Madness Bracket Contest
Tennessee Volunteers -7.5 vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
A lot of people are circling this as a potential upset and the line has come down a bit since it opened at 7.5. Iowa has a lot of height with Tyler Cook and Luka Garza on the front line, and you would expect the Hawkeyes to have a lot of success inside against a Tennessee team that isn’t very tall.
I don’t think that’s going to happen. Iowa does not get the two-point buckets that you would expect for a team with two solid big men, and they don’t defend the interior or rebound as well as you would think either. Iowa allows opponents to score on 53.6 percent of their two-point attempts, and they are a marginal rebounding team on both ends of the floor. Despite being undersized, Cincinnati had a major offensive rebounding edge over Iowa on Friday, and that’s a concern.
Despite being a bit undersized, Tennessee has overcompensated for that well all year. Admiral Schofield plays above his height and is a great help defender, and Grant Williams can overpower taller guys down low. I love Tennessee in this spot.
Buffalo Bulls +4.5 vs. Texas Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders have one of the best defenses in the country, but they don’t have much in the way of scoring. If you can focus your attention on Jarrett Culver and keep Davide Moretti from popping off from three, this team is vulnerable. Northern Kentucky was able to do that in the first half, and Buffalo has the talent to do it throughout the game.
Buffalo has been great about getting off good shots all year long, and the Bulls have proven they can get the ball inside with success against other good defenses like Syracuse. I think they can potentially grab the upset here.
Virginia Cavaliers -10.5 vs. Oklahoma Sooners
If you’ve been following the Sooners this year, you know that their shooting performance against Ole Miss was well out of the ordinary. This has been a below average offense all year, but they lit it up against the Rebels in a blowout win. I don’t see a repeat performance against Oklahoma this week. Virginia has the best defense in the country, and the Cavaliers mental game is strong after they buried last year’s demons. The ‘Hoos have three players that can bomb away successfully from distance, and Oklahoma won’t be able to hang.
Houston Cougars -6 vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
I believe in this Houston team. The Cougars are still somewhat under the radar despite being a No. 3 seed, and their wins over Oregon and LSU are looking even better now. Houston’s Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks are both hitting 38 percent of their threes on close to 300 attempts, and the Cougars play excellent defense.
Ohio State was a marginal team with a marginal resume. The Buckeyes are a perfectly mediocre team on offense, and their defense is above average at best. Their performances against top teams are troubling, and I don’t see them holding the line too well here.
Oregon Ducks -5 vs. UC Irvine Anteaters
When I first saw this line, I liked the Anteaters. More time has made me believe Oregon is the right side though. The Ducks have really turned a corner over the last month, and the Anteaters were a little fortunate in that Dean Wade wasn’t on the court in their win over Kansas State. UC Irvine is great at interior defending, but I don’t see them scoring on Oregon. The Ducks have an incredibly versatile defender in Kenny Wooten, and Payton Pritchard has looked sharp recently.
NCAA Basketball Predictions
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