Since taking over the storied Kentucky Wildcats program in 2009, head coach John Calipari has been an undeniable recruiting machine. As the undisputed King of “One-And-Done” recruits, Calipari has put numerous players in the NBA. But the one thing he has not done is win multiple national championships. Kentucky’s only natty under Calipari was in 2012. And their most recent Final Four was in 2015. To say that the natives are getting restless would be an understatement. Kentucky hosts a tough Tennessee Volunteers team on Saturday.
The Kentucky Wildcats will host the Tennessee Volunteers at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, Kentucky. This game will take place on Saturday, January 15, 2022, at 1 p.m. ET with television coverage on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Tennessee is a sharp’s kind of team in that they provide consistent value that is usually under the radar, especially against Blue Blood name-brand programs like Kentucky. Indeed, the Wildcats have the opposite problem. Kentucky draws too much casual fanboy money that decimates their board value.
Tennessee Volunteers
Late on, Tennessee has been in good form with five payouts in their most recent seven games. Four of Tennessee’s last five games stayed under the total. Tennessee is 11-4 straight up, 9-6 against the spread, and 6-9 under the total. Tennessee ranks 110th out of 350 teams for scoring offense and 25th for points allowed.
Head coach Rick Barnes has enjoyed a career renaissance at Tennessee. He arrived after getting fired at Texas, where he was highly successful but out of gas. Barnes loves defensive basketball and tough players.
Guards Santiago Vescovi and Kennedy Chandler lead the Vols. Both are averaging 13.5 points per game.
In away games, Tennessee is 54% against the spread. As an underdog, the Volunteers are 20% vs. the line. In SEC action, Tennessee is 43% vs. the odds. Tennessee is 72% under the total in away games. As an underdog, the Volunteers are 50% over and under the total. And in SEC action, Tennessee is 56% under the number.
Kentucky Wildcats
In two of its previous three games, Kentucky has failed to get the money. Three of their last five games stayed under the total. U of K is now 13-3 straight up, 8-8 against the spread, and 7-9 under the total. Kentucky has impressive national metrics of 11th out of 350 teams for scoring offense and 37th for points allowed.
Forward Oscar Tshiebwe has been a dominant presence for the Wildcats. The junior is averaging 17.0 points and 15.1 rebounds per contest. The native of Congo is having a breakout season after averaging 8.5 points per game last season.
In home games, Kentucky is 27% against the spread. As chalk, the Wildcats are 28% vs. the odds. And in SEC games, the Wildcats are 29% on the board. Kentucky is 63% over the total at home. As a favorite, the Wildcats are 60% over the total. And in SEC games, Kentucky is 66% over the total.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Prediction
In sum, Tennessee got the money in four of its last six games against Kentucky. Six of the previous eight games between the Volunteers and Wildcats went over the total. Tennessee has covered four of its prior five visits to Rupp Arena. The last four games in this series at Kentucky cleared the total.
Despite their historic brand, Kentucky is one of the worst values on the board in any sport when playing at home. And that is specifically why they drown gamblers in red ink. Kentucky attracts far too much attention from squares, especially on their home court.
BookMaker Pick: Tennessee Volunteers
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