With the Kansas Jayhawks likely to avenge Tuesday night’s beat down at the hands of the TCU Horned Frogs on Thursday night – whether they cover at online sportsbooks is to be determined – Bill Self’s kids will know that a share of the Big 12 regular season title will be there for the taking in Saturday’s revenge bout with the Texas Longhorns. Heck, they could win it all by their lonesome should they defeat Texas and Baylor somehow see its four-game win streak get snapped by Iowa State. After dropping a 79-76 decision to the Horns in a game it held a 4-point lead with just under a minute remaining, you have to imagine all hands will be on deck. But will that be enough to propel Rock Chalk to the win and cover? Linemakers are likely to have them laying in the neighborhood of 4-6 points with the total in the upper 130s. The first meeting combined to surpass the closing total, but I’ve got a feeling the defenses reign supreme in the rematch. As such, Texas plus the points paired with the under is the 2-team parlay I’d be targeting late Saturday afternoon.
Take this Big 12 battle in live on ESPN at 4 p.m. ET from the Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday, March 5, 2022. BookMaker.eu will have NCAA basketball odds available for this and every game lined up for Saturday’s loaded college basketball slate.
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Odds Analysis
It hasn’t been the season CBB bettors envisioned with Chris Beard taking over the controls in Austin. Texas enters this tilt 21-9 overall and just 10-7 in Big 12 play. On top of that, the team has been a detriment to bankrolls in managing a poor 12-18 tally against the closing betting lines. It gets even worse on the road where the Horns stand 4-6 SU and just 3-7 ATS. Though the team has played to the under at a 16-14 clip overall, all but two of their 10 played road games have combined for high scorers with an average of 140.3 points scored. Owners of a 23-6 overall record, Kansas closes the regular season out looking to improve upon its 14-1 SU and 8-7 ATS records when playing in front of the hometown faithful. Since getting throttled by Kentucky in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, the Jayhawks have strung together four straight home wins and covered three times. KU’s played to the over at a 17-12 overall clip with Big 12 home games cashing in four of seven instances.
Texas Longhorns
The Horns saw their mini two-game win streak come to a halt last time out at home versus Baylor whom it dropped a 68-61 decision to as 1.5-point home underdogs. The game was nip and tuck most of the way through until the Bears seized control late in the second half. A horrific showing from beyond the arc (4/23) and sending Baylor to the free throw line 20 times were mostly to blame. Marcus Carr and Christian Bishop led the team in scoring with 13 points apiece, but Timmy Allen and Courtney Ramey proved to be no-shows with the duo converting just five of their 19 combined shots. Texas possesses one of the best defenses in the country (No. 16), but it’s still unable to win games when the Horns can’t hit the broad side of a barn at the other end of the floor.
Kansas Jayhawks
Evidenced by the body of work put forth on Super Tuesday in Fort Worth, it’s pretty safe to assume Kansas succumbed to a major letdown spot. Dropping that 80-70 decision to Baylor on Saturday night cost them the path to the outright Big 12 title as well as a No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. They were feeling sorry for themselves and the Horny Toads took full advantage cruising to the one-sided 74-64 outright win and cover as 6.5-point home dogs. The Jayhawks’ defense failed to show in a big way in allowing a poor TCU offense to get whatever they wanted close to the rim and put 40 points on the board in the second half. It also didn’t help that both Ochai Agbaji and Jalen Wilson were plagued by early foul trouble from the word go.
Betting Prediction
A determined bunch of Jayhawks will take to their home hardwood on Senior Day in hopes of evening the score with the Longhorns. For all intents and purposes, Kansas had no business falling to Texas in the first meeting with the game seemingly in hand with less than a minute to go. But Self’s troops failed to hit their close out throws and Texas hit its shots to steal the win from the jaws of defeat. The loss was the third straight in the recent rivalry and their inability to cover dropped them to 0-3-1 ATS in the last four. Though Texas has held the recent upper hand, it’s been abysmal on the B12 road regardless of winning two straight against West Virginia (82-81) and Oklahoma (80-78). The two times it caught points against the conference’s elite, it fell 77-64 and 80-63 to Texas Tech and Baylor respectively. Both matchups combined for easy overs. That paired with the first meeting cruising past the impost leads me to believe an inflated O/U hits the board for the rematch. Should it surface in the low-140’s, I’ll be on the under for the first half and full game.
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