We are in the final month of the college basketball regular season, and the field for the NCAA Tournament is starting to take shape. About 20 teams have all but punched their tickets to the Big Dance, but the bubble is starting to grow large as the havoc of conference play affects some team’s chances. On Tuesday, we will have four games between ranked teams, but while most of those teams are likely in the tournament already, a few need to avoid key losses down the stretch to make it.
Purdue Boilermakers at Maryland Terrapins
Date and Time: Tuesday, February 12, 2019, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: XFINITY Center, College Park, Maryland
CBB Betting Line: Maryland PK, O/U 141
It took some time for the Boilermakers to build up steam. They were 6-5 with losses to teams outside the bubble picture like Texas and Notre Dame in mid-December, and they knew they needed to make a statement in conference play. Purdue has done that and then some to become the No. 12 team in the country. The Boilermakers are 10-2 in Big Ten play with their two losses coming on the road against Michigan and Michigan State.
The Terrapins didn’t have a tough non-conference schedule, and they lost to their two toughest opponents. Maryland couldn’t get past either Virginia or Seton Hall, so the Terps are still somewhat on the bubble. They have just one win over an opponent that is currently ranked, and they have four conference losses already.
When these teams met in West Lafayette back in early December, Purdue held on for a two-point win. It was a sloppy game with a combined 33 turnovers, and both teams have sharpened up on that end since that tilt. I think Maryland will get the win it needs thanks to some great play from Bruno Fernando.
LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats
Date and Time: Tuesday, February 12, 2019, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Rupp Arena, Lexington, Kentucky
CBB Betting Line: Kentucky -9, O/U 149
The Tigers have been one of the biggest surprises of the season. Will Wade has LSU playing great offense in his second season on the job, and the Tigers look set to make just their second NCAA Tournament appearance this decade. They haven’t played a particularly tough schedule, but they are 9-1 in conference play with the lone SEC loss coming by one point.
Kentucky has ramped it up. The Wildcats were everyone’s punchline in early November after being blasted by Duke, but they have lost just twice since that defeat. They have knocked off North Carolina, Kansas, and virtually all-comers in the SEC, and they are heavy favorites tonight.
Oddsmakers seem pretty skeptical of LSU with this line, but I believe in the Tigers. Rupp Arena is not an easy place to play in and they won’t get the win, but I see them securing the cover.
Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers
Date and Time: Tuesday, February 12, 2019, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Kohl Center, Madison, Wisconsin
CBB Betting Line: Michigan State -1, O/U 130.5
The Spartans are free-falling. Michigan State looked like the one team that could possibly knock off Michigan in the Big Ten earlier in the year, and the Spartans were heralded as a national title contender. However, they have lost three of their last four, and they seem to be missing the presence of Joshua Langford.
Wisconsin is close to locking up a bid, and a win here would probably do the trick. The Badgers’ out-of-conference wins over North Carolina State and Oklahoma don’t look as good as they once did, so they need to beat one more good Big Ten team to feel safe. Wisconsin has already beat Maryland, Iowa, and Michigan, and this is its first tilt with the Spartans.
I strongly considered going with the Badgers here, but Wisconsin was on the road against Michigan on Saturday and back-to-back games against the two best teams in conference is tough. Sparty gets the win here.
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