Struggling bluebloods has been a theme for the 2020-21 college basketball betting season. The Kansas Jayhawks have no shot of winning the Big 12. The Kentucky Wildcats will need a miracle to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. March Madness could be without the North Carolina Tar Heels for the first time since 2010. Then there’s the unranked Duke Blue Devils who’ve struggled to the tune of an 8-8 overall record due to injuries, COVID and a major dose of inexperience. Coach K was already clamoring for the season to be cancelled only three weeks into it! Things don’t figure to get much better for the Dookies this weekend when the ACC leading Virginia Cavaliers pay Cameron Indoor a visit fresh off a skunking at the hands of the Florida State Seminoles on Big Monday. With Jalen Johnson putting an end to his Duke career earlier in the week, the Blue Devils are going to find themselves dogged at home for the first time since 2016!
Take this ACC matchup in live on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET from Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday, February 20, 2021. BookMaker.eu will have NCAA basketball odds available for this and every game lined up for Saturday’s jam-packed college basketball schedule.
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Odds Analysis
Scoring the basketball hasn’t been an issue for the Dookies. Its offense scores just over 75 points per game (No. 81) and ranks No. 17 in efficiency per the current Pomeroy Ratings. What has been the Achilles heel however is a defense that concedes better than 72 points per game (No. 231) and has allowed all opposition to convert at a near 47 percent clip from the field (No. 308) and shoot north of 38 percent from beyond the arc (No. 330). It all adds up to the nation’s No. 86 ranked defensive efficiency. Hardly what college hoops bettors have gotten accustomed to with Coach K at the helm. UVA might not be one of the highest scoring teams in the country, but it’s wicked efficient at what it does. Ranked No. 14 in that respect, the inside outside game the Cavaliers deploy should have a field day in this matchup.
Virginia Cavaliers
At 15-4 SU overall and 11-2 SU in conference play, the Cavaliers are inarguably one of the best teams in the ACC as well as the country. It’s crazy to think that Virginia and Duke initially opened up as +215 and +225 choices to win the conference when fast forwarding to the present time. Even so, FSU just showed how human the Wahoos actually are after stomping them 81-60 on Monday night to snap the teams four-game win streak. Though it went on to shoot 47 percent from the field and converted on 9 of 23 3-point attempts, it wasn’t enough to fend off a furious showing from the Noles who shredded from deep and won the rebounding battle. The disgust was clearly present on Tony Bennet’s face over the course of the game. UVA is likely to take out some frustration on Saturday night.
Duke Blue Devils
Quick name a single player on the Duke Blue Devils 2020-21 roster not named Jalen Johnson. Actually, he’s not on the roster anymore after recently opting out to prepare for the NBA Draft. Ok go, name one! See that’s the thing; there isn’t a player currently on the Dookies’ roster that immediately comes to mind. That’s extremely unlike Coach K to have a roster assembled of no names with the amount of one and dones he’s trotted out onto the hardwood in recent seasons. Looks like recruiting got the best of the program this time around! Regardless, Duke just isn’t a very good basketball team. Recent losses to Notre Dame and Miami paint a picture of exactly just that. They don’t excel at any one thing and have stunk the joint up in a number of other statistical categories. I never thought I’d live to see the day the program was in disarray, but this is undoubtedly that time.
Virginia vs. Duke Prediction
What do you think is going to happen when one of the most efficient offenses in the country runs up against a defense that simply can’t get out of its own way? A whopping 38.9 percent of the 72.3 points the Blue Devils concede on a gamely basis come from 2-point range. That means Jay Huff is going to have himself a game after only managing four points in the loss to the Seminoles. I’d look to hit his player props over the number if they’re made available on game day. Also likely to fill the hoop with basketballs are Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy III with Duke getting ripped for a 38+ percent success rate from long range. Only 41 teams score a higher percentage of points from behind the arc than that of the Cavaliers, and that aforementioned duo is shooting 44 and 48 percent respectively from deep on the year! Virginia owns heavy advantages at each end of the court. I expect its offense to flourish and the defense to really give the Dookies major headaches once it builds up a nice lead. With that, I’d look to bet Duke’s team total under the number and lay the points with the visitors; especially if the Blue Devils somehow find a way to get out to a substantial early lead. Lay the 4-5 points pregame and then look to add in-game should the situation call for it.
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