There are now less than two weeks left in college basketball’s regular season, and teams that are on the bubble need to start making some moves. The vast majority of at-large spots have been claimed, but as John Gasaway pointed out in this week’s Bubble Watch, the bubble isn’t as strong as it has been in recent years and teams with sub-.500 conference records are likely to make the tournament this season. That will make for some interesting decisions on Selection Sunday, but the lesson as always is to finish strong and make it so that the committee doesn’t have a choice.
Marquette Golden Eagles at Villanova Wildcats
Date and Time: Wednesday, February 27, 2019, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Finneran Pavilion, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
CBB Betting Line: Villanova -5, O/U 143.5
Once upon a time, Villanova was in the driver’s seat in the Big East. The Wildcats were 10-0 in the conference, and they looked set to take a commanding lead going into their game against Marquette on February 9. The Golden Eagles nipped them by one point that night, and since then Villanova has been in a freefall.
The Wildcats have lost three straight games in the Big East now, squandering a 14-point second half lead on the road against St. John’s, and losing by a dozen points to both Georgetown and Xavier. Now, for Nova to have any chance of claiming a share of the Big East regular season title, they must beat Marquette tonight.
The good news for Nova is that they are playing at home. They have not lost at home since November 17, and they have beat most of their conference foes by double digits in Philly. Markus Howard will be out to stop that streak and give Marquette the Big East title tonight though. Howard went off for 38 points against Nova in their first meeting, and the Wildcats must shut him down tonight. I think they do and secure a double-digit win.
Cincinnati Bearcats at SMU Mustangs
Date and Time: Wednesday, February 27, 2019, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Moody Coliseum, Dallas, Texas
CBB Betting Line: Cincinnati -3.5, O/U 133.5
At this point of the season, all SMU can do is hope to play spoiler. The Mustangs suffered a humiliating 95-48 at the hands of UCF on Sunday, and it looks like Tim Jankovich will be fired in a few weeks.
There is enough talent for this team to still be competitive. All you have to do is look at the line the oddsmakers set against second-place Cincinnati tonight to know that. The Mustangs may have lost six of their last seven games, but their guards have popped off before.
That being said, I love Cincinnati. Call me a square for liking a ranked team as a short favorite, but I think the Mustangs aren’t there mentally. They have just a few games left in the season, and they are going through the motions. I’d be stunned if they scored more than 60 points against the Bearcats given how they have been shooting and how Cincy defends, so needless to say, I like the under too.
Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears
Date and Time: Wednesday, February 27, 2019, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Ferrell Center, Waco, Texas
CBB Betting Line: Baylor -4.5, O/U 134
This is the most important game on Wednesday from a bubble perspective. Texas might be 15-12, but the Longhorns’ computer numbers are strong, and they played one of the toughest schedules in the country this season. They need to avoid as many losses as they can though.
Baylor has been an impressive 9-5 in conference, and a win would likely punch the Bears’ ticket to the dance. That would give them 10 wins in the Big 12, and with a home tilt against Oklahoma State next week, the Bears would almost certainly get to 20 before the start of the conference tournament.
A loss could prove fatal though. The Bears’ two remaining road games are against the Kansas schools, so falling here would likely mean limping across the finish line with losses in three of their last four.
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