I guess hoops fans can be twice as excited for the NCAA Tournament since last year’s festivities were shuttered due to the coronavirus scare. There will be a dance this year though it will look much different with all games played in and around Indianapolis. One of the marquee first round matchups is in name only since both the Wisconsin Badgers and North Carolina Tar Heels struggled. But name recognition always draws a crowd and this one should be full of excitement with the clubs so evenly-matched. North Carolina is laying 1.5 points on the current college basketball betting line.
The NCAA Tournament matchup will air live on CBS at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, March 19, 2021 from Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, IN. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball schedule.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wisconsin Badgers +1.5
North Carolina Tar Heels -1.5
Over/Under 139.5
Odds Analysis
You can argue and debate whether a team should be in the tournament based on a 17-12 overall record. That’s certainly the case for the Badgers who were given a No. 9 seed despite finishing at .500 in Big Ten play. And it’s not like they were on a hot streak heading into the tournament. Bucky dropped five of its last six regular season meetings, beat a bad Penn State team by a point in the first round of the Big Ten Tourney before bowing to Iowa. That also left them as a 1.5-point dog on the betting line showing that things aren’t much better in Chapel Hill. If we eliminate the history and focus on the present we should have a good game. After all Wisconsin played in a league that produced two No. 1 seeds and nine Tournament teams.
Wisconsin Badgers
At least the Badgers won’t be in awe of the Tar Heels after running the gauntlet that was the Big Ten. Seven of their last 10 games were against nationally-ranked teams and unfortunately they went 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS. Thankfully UNC isn’t ranked, though the Heels closed the season on a nice run to reach the dance. For the Badgers to have any hope of advancing they need to do what they do best: take care of the basketball. They were No. 1 in the country in fewest turnovers per game with just 8.9. But when they don’t value the rock things usually turn out bad.
Against Iowa in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament, Wisconsin turned the ball over seven times in the final eight minutes. They lost 63-57 earning a push on the closing line. “We’re right there with a lot of these teams. We’ve just got to play better in key stretches. They understand we’ve got to take one more step,” coach Greg Gard said. If they do take that step count on D’Mitrik Trice to be right there. Trice scored 19 points against the Hawkeyes and leads the team averaging 13.7 points and 4.0 assists.
North Carolina Tar Heels
As inconsistent as the Heels were most of the season, they came together over the final weeks to solidify their spot in the Dance. They posted big wins over Florida State and Duke in the final week of the regular season then trounced Notre Dame and Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament before falling 69-66 to the Noles in the tourney semifinals. UNC looked more poised and confident during its three tournament games than at any point during the season. And its final stretch puts them in a good position to make a run in the NCAA Tournament. The Heels won’t win a national championship, but getting past Wisconsin is certainly doable.
One area the Heels have dominated this season is on the offensive glass. They lead the country with 15.9 offensive rebounds per game, more than one full carom better than the second-place squad. It seems like an irrelevant stat but it comes up huge in games that are decided by just a few points. And it also means the Heels miss way too many shots so improving on their 31 percent three-point shooting will be a boost.
Wisconsin vs. North Carolina Prediction
If the game plays out the way most expect it to the final margin will be just a few possessions. If that is the case the Heels can use their offensive rebounding acumen to take advantage of second chances and to drain the clock if they have a lead. Had the Badgers beaten one of the big boys from the Big Ten I might like them in the matchup. They didn’t and I don’t.
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