The Western Conference standings are so congested that teams in the middle of the pack can climb quickly with a winning streak. Those same teams can also fall with a losing skid. The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors are teams situated in the middle of the standings heading into a crucial primetime showdown on Saturday. Winning consecutive road games for the first time this season and having a roster close to full strength for the first time in a while is a good sign for the defending champs, though consistency is still lacking. They were denied a third straight road win falling in OT to Minnesota on Wednesday leaving them one game over .500.
The contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors takes place at 5:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 4, 2023 from Chase Center in San Francisco, CA and will air live on ABC. BookMaker.eu will have odds for every game on the Saturday NBA schedule.
NBA Opening Lines at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
A good sign for the Mavs was beating Phoenix on the road, 99-95, without Luka Doncic for all but three minutes. Doncic left the game early in the first quarter with an ankle injury leaving Spencer Dinwiddie to pick up the scoring slack with 36 points in the payout win. A better sign was having Doncic return after missing one game to drop 53 in a 111-105 win over Detroit. Still it’s been a struggle for the Mavs who won for just the third time in nine games, and it’s been more of a struggle at the betting window with back to back ATS losses dropping them to 2-7 ATS in that span.
After tangling with the West’s best in Denver on Thursday night, the Warriors return home to play their third game in four nights. One of the worst road teams in the entire NBA this season, the Warriors are among the best in their gym going 19-6 SU with the fourth-best cover rate at 62.5 percent. The Dubs won and covered all three home games in last season’s conference final taking the series in five games.
Dallas Mavericks
Of the 12 teams currently sitting in a top-6 playoff spot, the Mavs have the worst road record among them at 9-16. Playing a Golden State team with all its regulars in the lineup, the Mavs won the first meeting this season, 116-113, in late November. Doncic scored 41 points in that game and has had some monstrous games against the Dubs during his career. He averaged 32 points, 9.2 rebounds and 6.0 assists in last season’s playoffs.
His value to the club can’t be overstated. Not only does Doncic lead the team averaging 33.4 points, 8.9 rebounds and 8.3 assists, the Mavs are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in games he didn’t play. He also scored fewer than 20 points in a game twice before the Utah tilt last week with the team 0-2 SU and ATS in those outings. So, winning when he played less than four minutes was kind of a big deal. Their win over Detroit moved the Mavs two games over .500, but they are just 2-7 ATS in nine games and they have the worst overall cover rate in the NBA at 34 percent.
Golden State Warriors
With the core getting older and more injury prone maybe the Warriors reign is coming to an end. They are getting help from every other team in the Western Conference holding down a play-in spot after their loss to Minnesota dropped them to 26-25 SU and 24-26-1 ATS. The offense remains lethal with Stephen Curry dropping threes and averaging nearly 30 points. Klay Thompson (21.0) and Jordan Poole (20.8) also average more than 20 points helping the Dubs rank third in the Association with 118 points per game.
The defense has been an issue all season allowing the Warriors to cash the OVER at the fourth-highest rate in the NBA. The home/road splits are alarming, though, with the Dubs giving up roughly 10 points per game less at home with the UNDER cashing in 14 of their 25 games. And we’ve seen them struggle at home recently going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six at Chase Center.
NBA Odds Pick
Though they have a better overall record and Doncic, the Mavs have struggled on the road. Golden State is playing a third game in four nights, but they are tough at home with more balance throughout their lineup giving me the confidence to back the home team against the line.
NBA Odds Prediction: Golden State Warriors / OVER
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