The Phoenix Suns haven’t been the same since their second-round playoff loss to the Dallas Mavericks last season. Losing Game 7 of that series at home by 33 points apparently left a lasting impression on them. The Suns boasted the best record in the NBA last year, however, injuries beset the club leaving them below .500 until a recent three-game winning streak got them back to the breakeven point. Following a seven-game winning streak that moved them up the Western Conference standings, the Mavs have slumped with Sunday’s loss to the Clippers their sixth in eight games.
The contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns takes place at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 26, 2023 from Footprint Center in Phoenix, AZ and will air live on TNT. BookMaker.eu will have odds for every game on the Thursday NBA schedule.
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Odds Analysis
When Luka Doncic is just average the Mavs have little success. Dallas lost for the fourth time in five games falling to the Clips 112-98 as a 2-point home favorite. Their skid goes back further with six losses in eight games where they were just 2-6 ATS. The congested Western Conference standings are both good and bad. A run of success can move you up the ladder, like the Mavs proved with a seven-game winning streak that extended into the early part of the year. Teams can easily fall off the pace with a bad stretch like Dallas is dealing with now. The Mavs have had success against the Suns, though, winning five of the last seven matchups going 6-1 ATS.
Dealing with an onslaught of injuries has prevented the Suns from making a serious challenge in the West. You have to start somewhere and with bodies getting healed the Suns showed a glimpse of their previous self. Chris Paul returned after missing seven games with a hip injury scoring 22 points in a 112-110 win over Memphis, the Suns’ third straight and first winning streak in over a month. Since winning three straight in mid-December the Suns were 2-12 SU and 5-9 ATS. The wins were significant, though, knocking off the defending champion Warriors and Memphis on the road.
Dallas Mavericks
This game is worth watching just to see what Doncic does. We can’t expect a 60-point triple-double every night, but if anyone can do it Doncic is high on the list. He scored at least 20 points in all but two of 43 games and his value to the team is magnified when he struggles or doesn’t play. Luka had a season-low 15 points and sat one out with the Mavs getting swept in Portland last week. In his last four games when scoring 30 points or less, the Mavs are 0-4 SU and ATS.
You’d expect with the league’s leading scorer the Mavs would be better offensively. That hasn’t been the case, though. They average 112.6 points to rank 22nd in the Association with an offensive rating of 115.8. And the Mavs are a money pit at the betting window with the worst cover percentage in the league at 34.8, the only club with payouts in fewer than 40 percent of their games.
Phoenix Suns
Ravaged by injuries over the past few months took a toll with just two wins in 14 games. There is hope on the horizon, though. Paul returned on Sunday sparking a win over the West’s No. 2 team Memphis by scoring 22 points with 11 assists. It was the Suns third straight victory and payout that also included a takedown of East contender Brooklyn. The offense has sputtered with Booker on the shelf, though there have been some bright spots. The play Dario Saric, who missed all of last season recovering from major knee surgery, is one.
Playing 21 minutes off the bench, Saric had one of his most productive games of the season with 14 points and eight rebounds against the Griz. With the lineup changing seemingly every night it’s hard to build chemistry. Mikal Bridges and Damion Lee have played in every game this season with fixtures Booker, Paul, Payne and Landry Shamet appearing in fewer than 30 contests. Still, the Suns clawed back to .500 behind a top-10 scoring defense that’s allowed the Suns to cash the UNDER in 53.2 percent of their games.
NBA Odds Pick
The Mavs need help for Doncic and until someone steps up on a consistent basis the club will flounder around .500. Christian Wood was looking like the sidekick until a thumb injury shelved him leaving Luka on an island. The Suns have restored some confidence with Paul returning, DeAndre Ayton likely to return and Shamet also getting the green light. That’s enough for me to back the Suns in hostile arena for visiting teams.
NBA Odds Prediction: Phoenix Suns / UNDER
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