The Boston Celtics haven’t been kind to NBA bettors over the course of the regular season, and now they’re starting to piss their loyal fan base off by losing their stranglehold on a guaranteed spot in the playoffs. As it stands, the C’s are the current owners of the No. 7 seed in the East which means they’d have to partake in a play-in game if the season ended today. With only seven games remaining on the docket until the postseason begins at online sportsbooks, Boston is running out of bullets to solidify its standing. That makes this Sunday’s home tilt with the Miami Heat even more important with the reigning Eastern Conference champs the current owners of the No.6 seed by a half-game over the Celtics. Boston scored a slim 107-105 outright win at Miami back on January 6, so it currently owns the tiebreaker meaning the rematch on Tuesday could prove to be a moot point should both team’s standings remain the same entering the week.
This Eastern Conference heavyweight bout is set to go down live on Sunday, May 9, 2021. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET from the TD Garden with the game broadcast live on ESPN. We'll have NBA odds available at BookMaker.eu for this and every game on the NBA slate.
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Odds Analysis
Like the Celtics, Miami is dealing with a number of injuries to key players entering the home stretch. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are currently laid up with foot and knee injuries respectively, while Jimmy Butler has been forced to miss recent games due to an illness. Even so, Erik Spoelstra’s troops enter Friday night’s home clash with the Minnesota Timberwolves winners in three of their last four (2-1-1 ATS). Though just a .500 team on the road (16-16), Miami has been better against the NBA odds as a visitor (16-16 ATS) than at home (13-19-2 ATS). As for Boston, it will invade Orlando on Wednesday night having dropped four of its last six games and only managed to produce one pointspread cover during that stretch. The defense has been largely to blame with it conceding an average of 122.2 points which equates to nearly 10 points per game more than its seasonal average. The C’s have played to the opposite splits of the Heat with it 21-13 SU and 18-16 ATS as a host and 13-18 SU and ATS as a visitor.
Miami Heat
Last the Heat took to the hardwood they saw their three-game win streak go up in smoke at the hands of Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. The loss came as quite the disappointment after going into Charlotte and handing the Hornets a 121-111 defeat as 5.5-point chalk. Miami got out of the gates quickly taking a 39-30 lead into the second quarter, but then got embarrassed over the next 24 minutes in getting outscored 68-38. Things didn’t improve the rest of the way which allowed Luka Doncic and company to cruise to the dominant 127-113 victory. Miami simply had no answer for the Mavericks’ assault evidenced by allowing a 53 percent success rate from the field and 22 made 3-pointers!
Boston Celtics
Boston simply had very little in the tank to contend with Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday after battling back from a 29-point halftime deficit to defeat the San Antonio Spurs in overtime the game prior. While the game was nip and tuck through the first half, Boston would run out of steam over the course of the final 24 minutes getting outscored by 10 points to eventually drop a 129-119 decision as short 1-point underdogs. Keep in mind, Jaylen Brown was playing injured and Kemba Walker was a no go. Even so, the team still shot 48 percent from the field and connected on 20 of 39 overall shots from beyond the arc. Again, it was the defense that was simply unable to solve Portland’s deep and efficient attack with six of the eight players that suited up logging double-digits.
Miami vs. Boston Prediction
With so much on the line, you can’t help but think both teams bring their “A” games to the hardwood when they collide for the second time this season. As bad both defenses have been recently, linemakers are certain to post an inflated total for this matchup. Miami has cashed over tickets in each of its last seven games, while Boston has also been a moneymaker for those backing high scorers in each of their last five. With that, I’m going to be targeting the under provided the number to beat comes out higher than the first matchup that closed 217.5. The teams went on to combine for 212 points in that game with both offenses shooting in the neighborhood of 43 percent. With both teams fighting to guarantee themselves a shot in the playoffs, I fully expect the defenses to rise to the occasion. It’ll only make taking this position that much sweeter if there’s line value to be had.
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