Without a single team in the NBA Southeast above .500 heading into All-Star Weekend, the reigning Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat have been able to hold onto the division lead with a 17-17 overall record. They’re one of only two first place teams in the league that’s failed to log winning marks against the pointspread at online sportsbooks. The reigning champion Los Angeles Lakers is the other; go figure! Though the New Orleans Pelicans currently sit in fourth place within the NBA Southwest, the team has been playing a real competitive brand of ball lately winning three of its last five with the two defeats coming by an average of just 3.5 points per game; all but one combined for high scorers. Should Zion Williamson and company avenge an earlier season defeat on the road against the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday night, they’ll enter this tilt having rattled off four straight wins as hosts. That should have the Pelicans getting much attention from the betting public with the team looking to avenge the 111-98 defeat to the Heat absorbed back on Christmas Day.
This non-conference battle is set to go down live on Thursday, March 4, 2021. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from the Smoothie King Center. The game will be broadcast live on TNT. We'll have NBA odds available at BookMaker.eu for this and every game on Thursday’s NBA slate.
NBA Betting Lines at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
From a pointspread perspective, neither of these teams has been successful regardless of splits. Though Miami has won 10 of its 17 played home games, it’s just 7-9-1 ATS in those matchups. On the road, the team has only managed seven wins through 17 tries, but stands 8-9 ATS. As for the Pels, they’ve been a much better team at home than on the road. New Orleans has gone 9-7 SU as a host, but only tallied seven pointspread covers. It’s also gone a bankroll depleting 5-12 on the moneyline as a visitor, but backed that poor showing with a more palatable 7-10 mark against the closing NBA odds meaning New Orleans has thrived as underdogs. A role they’ll likely be in come Thursday night albeit by the slimmest of margins.
Miami Heat
It’s still unknown who will and won’t be available for Erik Spoelstra when his team takes to the hardwood on Tuesday night for a divisional matchup against Atlanta. With that, only time will tell if Jimmie Butler and/or Tyler Herro will be a go after missing recent games due to respective knee and hip injuries. Even with that duo out of the lineup, the Heat has been scorching hot having rattled off six straight wins and pointspread covers. The team just handed the Hawks a 10 point defeat last time out to cover the closing 2.5-point spread, so it’s highly probable it invades “The Big Easy” winners of seven straight. Since dropping three straight at the Jazz, Clippers and Warriors, Miami has scored three straight road wins and covers with the last of the comeback variety against Oklahoma City.
New Orleans Pelicans
When the Pelicans partook in a double dip with the Jazz at the end of January, it got out of the gates quickly but faltered tremendously down the stretch to lose and not cover both contests. That however wasn’t the case on Monday night when the teams locked horns once again for the first time in 5+ weeks. Utah would take a slim 5 point lead into halftime, but it would be a completely different story over the game’s final 24 minutes. New Orleans would show just how much its grown since by throttling Utah 40-24 in the third quarter to log the 129-124 win and cover as 7-point underdogs. While its laughable 3-point defense allowed Bojan Bogdanovic and company to drain 17 shots from deep, Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball proved to be too much with the trio combining for 75 points, 21 rebounds and 18 assists. Miami isn’t a good 3-point shooting team (No. 22).
Miami vs. New Orleans Prediction
As hot both of these teams have been entering the final week of the first half of the regular season, this will be a tough game to predict and linemakers likely won’t make it any easier with the pointspread likely to be around a pick ‘em. But with Miami owning the recent rivalry and already possessing a win over NO this season, I foresee the Pelicans going all-out to defend their turf in the rematch. New Orleans’ recent excelled play has come against much stiffer opposition than what the Heat has run up against over the course of their prolonged win streak. Though no team plays better 2-point defense than that of the Heat, Zion has been playing like a man possessed for the better part of the last month. The Heat undoubtedly possesses the better of the two defenses, but I question whether it will put the intensity into rising up in this matchup with it the last before the break. I honestly foresee New Orleans running away and hiding in this one, so back the home team and fade over bettors by playing the low side of what’s likely to be an inflated total.
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