The Indiana Pacers were by far the better team than the Miami Heat in the bubble. The former went on to win six of its eight played games both SU and ATS, while the latter only notched three wins through eight tries both outright and against the closing NBA betting odds. In taking the Heat down 109-92 in each team’s final seeding game on Friday night, the Pacers earned the right to be the home team in this matchup as the No. 4 seed. That however doesn’t change the fact that Miami won all three prior meetings with each team playing at full strength; or as close to it as possible. Oddsmakers opened the Heat up as modest favorites to win this series, but the betting market has since driven that price up. It looks like they’re not buying into T.J. Warren’s bubble blowup whatsoever and neither should you!
This series will take place at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, FL. Tip-off is scheduled for Tuesday, August 18, 2020 and go to Sunday, August 30 should a seventh game be needed to decide the outcome. All games will be aired live on TNT and ESPN. You can bet on NBA Odds at BookMaker.eu the remainder of the playoffs including Game 1 which finds Miami currently installed 3.5-point favorites with the game total lined at 217.5.
Series Winner Odds
Miami Heat -315
Indiana Pacers +267
Series Schedule
Game 1: Tue, Aug 18 Miami vs. Indiana, 4 ET, TNT
Game 2: Thu, Aug 20 Miami vs. Indiana, 1 ET, ESPN
Game 3: Sat, Aug 22 Miami vs. Indiana, 3:30 ET, TNT
Game 4: Mon, Aug 24 Miami vs. Indiana, 6:30 ET, TNT
Game 5*: Wed, Aug 26 Miami vs. Indiana, TBD, TBD
Game 6*: Fri, Aug 28 Miami vs. Indiana, TBD, TBD
Game 7*: Sun, Aug 30 Miami vs. Indiana, TBD, TBD
Futures Odds Analysis
Miami initially hit the board as -220 favorites to come out on top of this series. They’ve since been bumped up to -325 chalk which means a $325 wager would net a $100 return. If you like the Heat, a $100 bet would earn a $250 payoff. Both teams find themselves well off the pace of Milwaukee and Toronto on the Eastern Conference futures odds. Miami pays out at +985 which infers a 9.2 percent implied probability of Erik Spoelstra’s squad reaching the NBA Finals. The Pacers 42-1 payoff has a paltry 2.3 percent implied probability of occurring. In other words, it would be a huge shock if either of these two squads prevented Milwaukee or Toronto from reaching the Finals; more so Indiana. Speaking of which, Miami’s title odds check in at +2850 while Indiana pays off at 115-1!
Head-To-Head Results
Taking the final meeting in the bubble out of the equation due to the fact that both sides rested a bulk of their regulars, Miami owned the regular season rivalry with the Pacers. The first run-in back on December 27 was the closest with the Heat eking out a 113-112 win as 5-point home favorites; the 225 combined points eclipsed the closing 211-point total. The other two meetings were all one-sided triumphs in favor of the Heat who won by an average of 18 points per game; both games were easily covered. With Indy taking the final tilt, Miami stands 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in the season rivalry with an average of 215.5 points scored.
Pacers Player to Watch
T.J. Warren has taken his game to the next level in the bubble. The team’s current scoring leader with an average of 19.8 points, the sixth-year player upped the ante in the bubble immensely by tickling the twine for an average of 31 points in his six played games. He erupted for scoring outputs of 53 against the 76ers, 34 against the Wizards, 32 against the Magic and 39 against the Lakers. But in the three skirmishes with the Heat, he only managed to average a pedestrian 10.3 points in over 82 minutes. As injury riddled Indiana currently is it’s going to need much more than that from him to avoid getting embarrassed in this series.
Heat Player to Watch
While most would look to Jimmy Butler as Miami’s PTW, I’m going to head in a different direction and demand you turn your attention to Bam Adebayo who gave the Pacers fits all season long. He averaged a double-double with 15.3 points and 11 rebounds in the three run-ins, and figures to once again dominate the paint with Domantas Sabonis not returning to the Pacers lineup anytime soon. Miami dominated the battle of the boards winning it by the aggregate tally of 156-116 in the three games that meant anything, and that’ll likely be the case throughout this series with him being Miami’s premiere rebounder in averaging over 10 per game.
Key Stat
The Heat check in as the league’s No. 2 ranked shooting team from beyond the arc. It’s converted long range shots at a near 38 percent clip with guys like Duncan Robinson, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Herro and Jae Crowder all excelling. Indiana simply had no answer to contain Miami’s explosiveness from long range in allowing Butler and company to shoot north of 42 percent on two occasions. With the ability to go off from deep paired with Adebayo owning the paint, Miami’s double pronged offensive attack is going to be a nasty headache for Indiana to shake.
NBA Playoffs Odds Pick
I think oddsmakers were drinking the Pacers Kool-Aid when they set the series odds for this matchup. Sharp money infiltrated almost immediately and bumped it up to where they likely should’ve opened in my estimation. As nice a story Warren and the Pacers were in the bubble, they still proved to be a non-threat to the Heat in the lone competitive matchup. Indy owns a bruised and battered roster right now, and the young Heat with an alpha dog leading the charge will run them out of the gym. Look for Miami to do damage from deep and add insult to injury by getting to the line with regularity to seal the deal. Indiana will be lucky to win one game in this series!
Prediction: Heat in 5
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