Over the course of an 82-game schedule, things have a way of working themselves out. After strong starts to the campaign from the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies, both have settled into the bottom eight of the Western Conference with records below .500. Contrasting styles will be on display in this Martin Luther King Jr. Day matinee. The Pels can score in bunches while the Griz will use their typical grind-it-out style to try and frustrate opponents. The teams will meet for the third time this season after splitting the first two contests in the Big Easy.
Don't miss the hardwood action between the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies from the FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tenn., on Monday, January 21, 2019 beginning at 5:30 p.m. ET. The game will air nationally on TNT.
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Odds Analysis
The Pels are still holding onto faint playoff hopes and they could be primed for a surge now that they have some of their injured players back in the mix. The recent returns of E’Twaun Moore and Nikola Mirotic should spark an offense that ranks third in the league in scoring, but the Pels need wins and this is a game they desperately need. Overall New Orleans is three games below .500 and they’ve been awful on the road.
The Pels finish off a five-game road swing on Monday and they’ve gone just 6-18 following a 147-140 loss to Golden State. Through the first three games of the trip they are averaging over 122 points, but they have only one victory. That tells us a lot about what area needs improvement.
It you bet the NBA you’d be foolish to not go against the Griz. They’ve lost three straight and nine of 10 following a 111-101 setback against the Bucks and they are just 1-9 ATS in that stretch. Back in early December the Griz were 15-9 following a win over the Pelicans. They’ve been on a massive slide since, winning just four of the last 20 ball games while going 3-17 ATS.
Injury Update
While the Pels are getting some players back in the rotation, the Griz are headed in the opposite direction. Memphis is down a few key role players in Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson. Brooks is expected to miss the remainder of the season with a foot injury while Anderson is a few weeks away from getting back on the floor.
Anderson has been a regular in the starting lineup and is averaging eight points and 5.8 rebounds while playing nearly 30 minutes a night. Those aren’t exorbitant numbers, but his hustle plays helped Memphis’ defense. The slowdown tactics worked early in the year and the Griz continue to be one of the best holding opponents to 103 points per game.
The Pels got a huge boost with Mirotic back in the lineup. Not only is he a scorer, he also fits back in the rotation with Julius Randle. Mirotic has been streaky in four games since his return from an ankle injury, but he went off for 29 points against the Warriors hitting 6 of 10 three-pointers. That was more makes than he had in the first three games of his return. Overall, he’s the team’s third leading scorer with an average of 16.9 points per game.
Key Stat
The Grizzlies are one of the lowest scoring and worst shooting teams in the NBA, so it’s no secret what they have to do to win games. They play an old-school game by slowing the pace and limiting scoring opportunities. They have the second-best scoring defense in the league giving up just 103.1 points per game while holding teams to under 45 percent shooting from the floor.
Their last three wins have come when holding the opposition to less than 100 points and the Griz are 11-3 when giving up 100 or fewer points. The under is 11-4 in Memphis’ last 15 games and they played below the closing total while splitting their first two games with the Pels.
Free NBA ATS Picks
The Griz have been awful over the past few weeks and things aren’t getting better with Anderson and Brooks on the shelf. They’ve held the explosive Pelicans in check the first two meetings, but now that New Orleans has its full complement of players on the floor, that will change. And we haven’t even mentioned Anthony Davis, yet. The Brow leads three players averaging over 20 points per game and I don’t see the Griz holding them down. The total will come in low for a Pels game and that’s a chance to win some coin on the live betting lines at BookMaker.eu.
NBA ATS Pick: New Orleans 115, Memphis 104
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