We expected a close series with the teams separated by just three games in the regular season standings, and that’s what we have so far. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the first round NBA playoff matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz go the distance, though the Mavs can avoid a return trip to Big D with a road win in Game 6. The return of Luka Doncic boosted the Mavs to a big 102-77 Game 5 win putting them on the brink of advancing.
The NBA Playoff game between the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz will tip off at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 28, 2022 from Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City. BookMaker.eu will have betting options for every game on the NBA playoff schedule.
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Odds Analysis
It took Doncic a little while to get going, but once he did the Mavs were unstoppable. After missing the first three games of the series with Dallas winning twice and covering the spread in the last two, Doncic was back in the lineup for Game 4. He scored 30 points but the team lost a tight one 100-99. The first four games were all decided by eight points or less with the Mavs earning payouts in three of them. Including four regular season meetings the teams split the first eight games played this season with Dallas having a big edge at the betting window. The Mavs went 7-1 ATS in those games. They made it 8-1 ATS with a thorough beating in Game 5 putting them a win away from advancing to the second round.
The good thing about an extended series is that you can have a clunker and still be successful. Utah had a crappy outing on Monday putting them on the brink of elimination, but Thursday gives them a chance at redemption. And we can say that blowout loss came out of nowhere. The teams had been relatively close throughout the season series with only one of the previous eight matchups decided by more than eight points. Historically the Jazz have been a strong home team and they’ll need that edge to keep the series alive. They went 29-12 on their home floor during the regular season, though they were just 17-22-2 ATS.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs grabbed control of the series without Doncic winning Games 2 and 3 thanks to the contributions of Jalen Brunson. With Doncic nursing a sore hamstring, Brunson went off for 41 points on 15 of 25 shooting in Game 2 to even the series. He led the Mavs to a Game 3 win in Utah tallying 31 points. With Doncic back in the lineup for Game 4 Brunson dropped 23 points in less of a scoring role. Through the first four games Brunson averaged 29.8 points with 19 total assists and only three turnovers.
After “getting my wind back” in Game 4 by scoring 30 points, Doncic led an onslaught on Monday. He scored 33 points and Brunson added 24 as the backcourt duo nearly outscored the Jazz in a 102-77 rout. Chalk one up for the defense in this one. The Mavs held Utah to 10 percent shooting from three-point range and 36.8 percent overall.
Utah Jazz
It was a bad night all around for the Jazz on Monday. Not only did they get whacked in the pivotal Game 5 they also lost Donovan Mitchell, who left the floor in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury. We’ll have to wait and see the extent of the injury, but after averaging over 30 points in the first four games, Mitchell was limited to nine points on 0 of 7 shooting from deep in Game 4. Utah was one of the better teams offensively during the regular season averaging nearly 114 points and shooting 47.1 percent from the field. You can expect a different team on Thursday.
The Jazz showed more fight in fourth quarter skirmish that saw Hassan Whiteside get ejected than they did for most of the game. And there isn’t a good postseason history with this club, which only makes their effort expected. They couldn’t take advantage when the Mavs were without their star player and now Utah could be without its top scorer in a closeout game.
Mavericks at Jazz NBA Odds Pick
The Jazz looked defeated from the outset on Monday and the result was a nasty loss. They will have to pick it up in Game 6, but the status of Mitchell is a concern. He’s a game and will play if he’s able, but a sore hamstring limits his explosiveness and he’s the catalyst of the offense. Doncic and the Mavs can sniff a series-ending victory and I like them to get it.
NBA Odds Prediction: Dallas Mavericks / UNDER
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