It hasn’t been an easy playoff ride for the Phoenix Suns, but the O’Brien Trophy favorites didn’t expect anything less, especially with a target on their back after running away with the best record during the regular season. The Suns took out the pesky Pelicans in the first round after splitting the first four games of the opening round series. They find themselves in a similar situation after the Dallas Mavericks won a pair of home games to even the Western Conference semifinal. Game 6 is scheduled for Thursday night in Dallas where the Mavs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their previous four games.
The NBA Playoff game between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks air live on ESPN with tip off at 9:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 12, 2022 from American Airlines Center in Dallas. BookMaker.eu will have betting options for every game on the NBA playoff schedule.
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Playoff Analysis
I guess it’s a good thing the Suns finished with the best record in the Association securing home court advantage throughout the playoffs as long as they’re still playing. Their playoff results away from home have been somewhat mystifying considering they went 32-9 on the road during the regular season with five more wins than the second-best road team in the entire NBA. Losing two straight in Dallas dropped the Suns to 2-3 SU and ATS in away games in the playoffs. That little skid also matched the team’s longest losing streak of the season. I’ve mentioned this in other articles and it’ll likely come up again, but it’s true that the intensity level picks up in the postseason.
It’s hard enough carrying around one so the Mavericks unloaded a couple of monkeys off their back this postseason. Beating Utah in the first round advanced them for the first time since winning the NBA title in 2011. They had made six appearances since then losing in the opening round each time. And their 103-94 win in Game 3 snapped an 11-game losing streak to the Suns. Their last win before that was way back in November 2019. The Mavs paid off for backers in Games 3 and 4 and have been a good bet this postseason going 7-3 ATS in their first 10 games.
Phoenix Suns
It had been two years since Chris Paul last fouled out of a game. It’s a rare occurrence but it does happen. And it happened at an inopportune time for the Suns. Dealing with foul trouble before eventually being disqualified, Paul played just 23 minutes in Game 4 and had one of his worst games stats-wise in probably ... forever! CP3 only played a few minutes in the fourth quarter, which has been his time this postseason. And the Suns paid the price losing 111-101.
You’re not going to get the benefit of calls on the road so the Suns have to be smarter all the way around. This is a team that was poised in crunch time all season and had several comebacks in these playoffs. The Suns need Paul to be better than he was in Games 3 and 4 in Dallas. He had problems valuing the basketball in the first contest and fouls got to him in the other.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs are feeling good and probably feel like they’re playing with house money at this point. They advanced to the second-round for the first time in their past six playoff visits and ended a lengthy skid to the Suns. They weren’t expected to win the series since the Suns finished the season with 12 more victories and are widely considered the favorite to win the title. At least Dallas will make it interesting.
Strong defense helped the Mavs even the series holding the Suns to an average of 97.5 points in their two home wins. They also swarmed Utah in the first round holding the Jazz to an average of 93.3 points in three home games with the UNDER at 4-1 in five playoffs games inside AAC. Things get pressurized later in a series when playing a closeout game and the Mavs don’t have the postseason success or experience.
Suns at Mavericks NBA Odds Pick
I certainly expect Paul to play better in this game than he did in the first two contests in Dallas. Not that he was the reason the Suns lost, but it sure played a big role. And while the Mavs have a popular player in Luka Doncic, the Suns have a well-rounded team that survived a chunk of the season without Paul and several other players for extended periods of time. And I like the Suns to rise to the occasion on the road showing off why they are favored to win the title.
NBA Odds Prediction: Phoenix Suns / OVER
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