No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series, but the Denver Nuggets do have some experience in the art of comebacks. They extended their first round playoff series with the Golden State Warriors avoiding a sweep with a 126-121 win in Game 4. The teams head back to the Bay Area for Game 5 on Wednesday. Only a handful of teams have come back from being down 3-1 to win. The Nuggets did it twice during the 2020 playoffs. As good as the Warriors played in winning the first two games at Chase Center, Denver’s task is monumental.
The NBA Playoff game between the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors will air live on TNT with tip off at 10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 27, 2022 from Chase Center in San Francisco. BookMaker.eu will have betting options for every game on the NBA playoff schedule.
NBA Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Nuggets +8.5
Golden State Warriors -8.5
Total 225.5
Odds Analysis
Despite their recent history with winning a playoff series after being down two games, oddsmakers aren’t giving the Nuggets much respect pegging them as an 8.5-point underdog on the Game 5 opening line. One win doesn’t change what happened in the first two games, which the Warriors won by a combined 36 points. It does, however, give the Nuggets a jolt of confidence knowing they can beat Golden State. Denver earned its first payout in the series on Sunday winning outright as a 4.5-point dog. Going back to the end of the regular season, the Nuggets had dropped four in a row overall and ATS. We also saw them bust out offensively with a series-high point total. It was Denver’s second-highest point total against the Warriors in eight games this season and the teams cashed the OVER in all four playoff games and in six of the last seven meetings overall.
The Warriors are in great shape despite the Game 4 loss. The teams in each conference are closely stacked in terms of regular season record so a sweep would be quite an accomplishment. And since no team has ever lost four straight after winning the first three, yeah, things are still looking good. The Warriors had the better of the play in Game 3 down the stretch helping them eke out a close win. They weren’t as fortunate on Sunday. Still, they had a late lead despite Draymond Green fouling out with more than two minutes remaining and Steph Curry having an uncharacteristic poor shooting night. The Dubs won the first two games at home by 16 and 20 points easily covering the closing line. They don’t want this series to go beyond what’s necessary since no team is as comfortable playing with a series deficit as Denver.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets won’t go down without a fight, according to Michael Malone. And they bounced back from two horrible defeats in the Bay Area to show they have something left. They had a chance to win Game 3 but faltered down the stretch. They made the plays on Sunday, in part to Nikola Jokic, who tallied 37 points.
Though he averaged 25.5 points in each of the first two games, Jokic was frustrated. Refocused when the team returned to Denver, Jokic dropped 37 in each game boosting the offense and eventually Denver’s hopes. Saying the Warriors are beatable and actually beating them are two different things, though.
Golden State Warriors
I’ve never been involved in a playoff series, but I think it’s normal for a team to let up a bit after taking a 3-0 series lead, especially after stealing Game 3 on the road. I’m not saying that’s the case here, but taking your foot slightly off the gas gives a desperate team the room it needs. But the Dubs held a late lead in Game 4 before the Nuggets made some baskets.
There were some lapses on defense we didn’t see in the first two games. Denver beat the Warriors at their own game shooting over 56 percent, making 15 of 31 triples and getting to the stripe 36 times. Expect the Dubs to be more disciplined on that end of the floor and the offense will take care of itself. After all they are averaging 122 points in the series.
Nuggets at Warriors NBA Odds Pick
The Nuggets played as well as they could on Sunday and still squeaked out a 5-point win. That’s likely going to change on Wednesday. They struggled with the Warriors defense, the officiating and each other in the first two games, and though they are a desperate club the home team is better. Now, 8.5-points better? Yep, and I’ll back the Warriors.
NBA Odds Prediction: Golden State Warriors -8.5 / OVER 225.5
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