For Aaron Rodgers to get back to the Super Bowl he’ll have to slay his demons. And of course the biggest one is staring at the reigning and possible future MVP. It’s not going to be easy for the top-seeded Green Bay Packers, but the playoffs never are. Rodgers has never beaten the San Francisco 49ers in three career postseason starts against them but this could be the best Packers team in some time. And they are ready to get over the hump after losing the previous two NFC championship games, including one to the Niners two years ago. Green Bay opened as the biggest favorite on the Divisional playoff board laying 5.5-points to the upset-minded Niners.
This NFC Divisional Round playoff matchup will take place on Saturday, January 22, 2022 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI and will be televised on FOX.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Francisco 49ers +5.5
Green Bay Packers -5.5
Total 47.5
Odds Analysis
The teams met earlier this season with the Packers eking out a 30-28 victory as a 3.5-point road dog. Green Bay went on to win 13 games for the third straight season capturing the No. 1 seed in the NFC. And they did it by going undefeated at home, which is why getting the top spot was so important. Green Bay hit the board as a 5.5-point favorite with little movement on the line so far. The spread is the largest on the board, which isn’t too surprising. The Packers were 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS during the regular season at Lambeau. The Niners surged over the final two months just to make the playoff and they were the only road team to win a wild card game, dropping Dallas 23-17 as a 3.5-point dog. Including that game they’ve won eight of their last 10 going 8-2 ATS. However, both losses in that span came on the road where the Niners are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.
Key Injury
We saw how tough Jimmy Garoppolo is by playing through a thumb injury on his throwing hand to lead Frisco to win over the Rams in the regular season finale to get into the postseason. He then sustained what the team is calling a “slightly” sprained right shoulder. In case you’re wondering that is his throwing arm, but Kyle Shanahan seems to think Garoppolo can practice this week and should be good to go on Saturday. Of course that’s what he said; he isn’t going to reveal anything that would give the Packers an edge. Still, thumb and shoulder damage will limit what Garoppolo can do and the conditions are calling for a cold night that will exacerbate the situation.
There were other injury concerns with the Niners from Sunday’s game. Fred Warner and Nick Bosa both exited the contest. Warner sustained an ankle sprain and Bosa was concussed leaving the defense to work in some healthy bodies during practice. Warner sounded more optimistic about playing since Bosa has to clear concussion protocols. That’s why teams battle all season for the top seed and first-round bye.
Key Stat
One reason why the Packers have been so good the last few seasons is their ability to hold onto the football. They make opponents earn everything by limiting turnovers and that starts with Rodgers. Green Bay had the fewest giveaways during the regular season with 13 and Rodgers tossed just four picks the entire season, two over his final 15 starts and 503 pass attempts. The Packers also forced 26 turnovers and had the second best turnover margin at plus-13. Green Bay forced a pair of turnovers while not coughing the ball up in their Week 3 victory in Santa Clara.
Player to Watch
When the teams met in the NFC Championship two years ago the Niners pounded the ball on the ground churning out 285 yards and 6.8 yards per carry. And you can bet that’s a big part of their game plan with Garoppolo dealing with injuries. Eli Mitchell led the Niners with 963 rushing yards during the regular season averaging 4.7 yards per carry in just 11 games. He rushed for 96 yards and a TD against Dallas. Mitchell missed the Week 3 game and the Niners had only 67 yards on 21 carries. If the Packers can slow the run game their chances of winning improve dramatically.
Free ATS Pick
The injury report definitely favors Green Bay and the weather conditions are going to be something new for Garoppolo. The Packers flew under the radar defensively with Rodgers having another MVP-type season, but that is what will carry the Packers to a home win in this matchup.
NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers -5.5 / UNDER 47.5
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