No longer a back-up in the City of Brotherly Love, Nick Foles once again owns the keys to a starting offense after the Jacksonville Jaguars ponied up a four-year $102 million contract for his services. The hope is he proves to be the missing ingredient from an offense that took gargantuan steps backwards after coming up just short of cashing in on the Super Bowl odds at online sportsbooks the previous season. Foles will forever be known for coming off the bench and leading the Philadelphia Eagles to their only title a few years back. His ability to do so is likely one of the main reasons why Jacksonville was one of his few suitors with it still of the belief the window is still open to make a run at winning a title themselves. Strange putting that much confidence and giving that much money to a player that’s never started 16 straight regular season games.
Total Passing Yards: 3850.5
Total Passing TD: 20.5
Included in the gaudy contract signed in the offseason was $50 million guaranteed dollars. So, if you think the Jaguars will be a run-based offense like its proven to be throughout the Doug Marrone era, you’ve got another thing coming. They didn’t hand over all those Benjamins for him to just hand the ball off to Leonard Fournette and company! In five seasons at the helm of the Jaguars offense, Blake Bortles threw for an average of 3,529.2 yards per season. If you omit last season’s pathetic effort as well as his rookie campaign, Bortles averaged just over 4,000 passing yards per season. If Jacksonville’s former inconsistent gunslinger could routinely throw for over 3,850 yards with nearly the same personnel, why can’t Foles who’s proven to be more efficient over the course of his career?
Seasonal Scenario
It’s back to regularly scheduled programming for the city of Jacksonville. No longer considered to be an AFC title contender or have much sticking power in an AFC South many forecast Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts win with ease, there’s plenty of value to be had on the futures odds should you also believe the Jaguars’ window of opportunity is still open. Jacksonville’s SB LIV odds are currently offered up at 60-1 after opening up +5000, and they’re expected to finish third within the division behind the Texans and ahead of the Titans. Should Foles be able to build upon his 72.3 completion percentage and 98.0 QB rating in limited work a season ago, there’s no reason to believe he won’t at the very least be in the ballpark of cashing the over of both prop offerings currently available at offshore sportsbooks.
Jacksonville Jaguars Football Schedule
Week 1: Chiefs at Jaguars, Sunday, September 8, 1 p.m. ET - CBS
Week 2: Jaguars at Texans, Sunday, September 15, 1 p.m. ET - CBS
Week 3: Titans at Jaguars, Thursday, September 19, 8:20 p.m. ET – NFL NETWORK
Week 4: Jaguars at Broncos, Sunday, September 29, 4:25 p.m. ET - CBS
Week 5: Jaguars at Panthers, Sunday, October 6, 1 p.m. ET - CBS
Week 6: Saints at Jaguars, Sunday, October 13, 1 p.m. ET - CBS
Week 7: Jaguars at Bengals, Sunday, October 20, 1 p.m. ET - CBS
Week 8: Jets at Jaguars, Sunday, October 27, 1 p.m. ET - CBS
Week 9: Texans at Jaguars, Sunday, November 3, 9:30 a.m. ET – NFL NETWORK
Week 10: Bye Week
Week 11: Jaguars at Colts, Sunday, November 17, 1 p.m. ET - CBS
Week 12: Jaguars at Titans, Sunday, November 24, 4:05 p.m. ET - CBS
Week 13: Buccaneers at Jaguars, Sunday, December 1, 1 p.m. ET - FOX
Week 14: Chargers at Jaguars, Sunday, December 8, 4:05 p.m. ET - FOX
Week 15: Jaguars at Raiders, Sunday, December 15, 4:05 p.m. ET - CBS
Week 16: Jaguars at Falcons, Sunday, December 22, 1 p.m. ET - FOX
Week 17: Colts at Jaguars, Sunday, December 29, 1 p.m. ET - CBS
Schedule Breakdown
The best thing about finishing dead last in a division is getting to take on a last place schedule the following season. Exactly the opposite occurred last season when the Jaguars came from out of nowhere to win the AFC South. Though the team got out to a solid start winning three of the first four games which included a solid handling of the New England Patriots at home, reality quickly set in with the team managing just two wins the rest of the way. Luckily for Foles, he gets to square off against a schedule that ranks out as the easiest schedule in the league for opposing quarterbacks. Going by last year’s stats, his toughest opponent comes in the form of the Tennessee Titans who limited opponents to an average of just 216.9 passing yards per game (No. 6). Only four other opponents had pass defenses that ranked out as above average in 2018-19. While things change dramatically in the NFL from season to season, you can’t help but like how the schedule shapes up if planning on buying some Foles stock at top rated sportsbooks.
The Bets
While I would’ve much rather been able to buy into the market when Foles’ passing yards prop was 300+ yards shorter, I still think he has it in him to produce a 4,000 yard passing season with the pass catching talent Jacksonville currently has on its roster. While there isn’t a bonafide No. 1 target on it, there are some nice pieces in Dede Westbrook, DJ Chark, Chris Conley, Keelan Cole, Terrelle Pryor and Geoff Swaim. The former of which is expected to have his biggest fantasy football season yet. Supposedly, Fournette has been working on his pass catching skills out of the backfield as well! When it’s said and done, it’s all going to boil down to health. Foles hasn’t been one to dodge the injury bug throughout his career, so just know there’s an extra level of risk being taken when getting involved. Regardless, I can’t help but think the talent around him paired with an extremely manageable schedule allows him to exceed the yardage total. Shame on him if he can’t cash in on the touchdown prop as well!
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