The swing through the Sunshine State continues this week when the PGA Tour heads to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The event annually attracts a strong field with a number of top golfers attacking the Bay Hill Club and Lodge to pay tribute to the tournament’s namesake. And with this being another designated event on the schedule, the best of the best are ready to peg it up. With wins in half of his six Tour starts this season, world No. 1 Jon Rahm is the betting favorite with Rory McIlroy second on the odds board. In all 40 of the top 50 in the OWGR are scheduled to compete, including defending champ Scottie Scheffler. There is value further down the odds board with Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau and Jason Day all in the 25/1 range. Be sure to visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Odds to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational
Jon Rahm +605
Rory McIlroy +875
Scottie Scheffler +1000
Will Zalatoris +1800
Collin Morikawa +1800
Max Homa +1800
Xander Schauffele +2001
Patrick Cantlay +2474
Justin Thomas +2504
Tony Finau +2504
Jason Day +2504
Viktor Hovland +3005
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3005
Sungjae Im +3506
Tyrrell Hatton +3506
Cameron Young +4298
Jordan Spieth +4500
Sam Burns +4500
Tom Kim +5000
Shane Lowry +5000
Chris Kirk +5150
Keith Mitchell +5350
Sahith Theegala +5500
Corey Conners +6400
Hideki Matsuyama +6500
Tommy Fleetwood +6500
Keegan Bradley +7500
Gary Woodland +7500
Rickie Fowler +7500
Seamus Power +7500
Odds Analysis
Jason Day +2504
A winner at this event in 2016, Day worked through some difficult times over the past year but found his game recently making him a solid pick in the outright at his price. Three straight top-10s with a solo fifth in Phoenix has the Aussie looking good. And overall it’s been a strong season for him with four top-10s and eight top-25s in the eight starts he played the weekend. Day is a strong wind player and that will certainly help him with blustery conditions expected.
Tony Finau +2504
I ventured further down the odds board finding good value in guys like Day and Finau. Both solid players throughout their careers are probably good bets in alternate markets as well. Finau stands out with his ability to hit the ball a long way taking advantage of the long par 5s. He’s been solid this season finishing among the top-20 in each of his last six starts with a win in Houston.
Tyrrell Hatton +3506
It only makes sense that Hatton returns to Bay Hill since the course has treated him well. A winner here in 2020, Hatton was runner-up last year and also has another top-5 on his resume. He’s made all six cuts at the API and is playing well coming in with a T6 in Phoenix last month and three top-10s in his last four DP World Tour starts, including a runner-up at the DPWT Championship last November. Since I like looking for value picks Hatton stands out at his price.
Sungjae Im +3506
Playing in Florida appeals to a lot of players and Im is one of them. He’s a candidate for a bounce back week after disappointing finishes in his last two starts. He started the season with five top-20s in eight starts but stumbled to a T56-T42. A visit to Bay Hill is exactly what Im needs to get back in a groove. He finished no worse than 21st in four starts with a pair of podiums in 2019 and 2020. He’s another strong player at a decent price.
Rory McIlroy +875
With such a top-heavy field it’s hard to completely ignore the top of the odds board. The McIlroy vs. Rahm matchups didn’t quite materialize with Rory going T32 in Phoenix and T29 at the Genesis. But he’s as good as they get at Bay Hill finishing among the top-13 in seven of his eight starts, including a win in 2018. And I expect McIlroy to be fired up after two sorry showings by his standards.
Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge – 7,466 yards, Par 72
Arnold Palmer loved the property so much he purchased the course in 1975 then negotiated with the PGA Tour to bring an official tournament to Orlando in 1979. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has been played ever since. The layout has undergone renovations in the years since to increase its appeal to amateurs and the public while remaining a challenge for pros who visit every year. The strategy has proven successful. It’s a stock par 72 that plays long. Wide fairways are a bonus, but the par 4s need to be played conservatively making this a second-shot course. Scoring can be made up on the par 5s. Though the track is straightforward it yields closer to par scores on average. And it’s Florida so water is a factor and there’s always a chance wind plays a role like it did the last two years when the final round scoring average was nearly 75.5.
TV Coverage: NBC, Golf Channel
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