The PGA Tour moves from the Arizona desert to the California coast with Pebble Beach Golf Links playing host to its namesake event, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am this week. As with a few other events this year there are some notable changes. First, there is no pro-am portion thanks to COVID, but we’ll continue with the tournament name. And since the amateurs are sidelined only two courses will be contested this week instead of the usual three with the cut moved to 36 holes. Fresh off his win at the Saudi International, Dustin Johnson tees it up on the mainland for the first time in 2021 as the betting favorite on the opening line. Phil Mickelson returns to one of his favorite events looking for his first Tour victory since his record-tying fifth Pebble Beach title 24 months ago. And Nick Taylor is back to defend his 2020 title. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Odds to Win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at BookMaker.eu
Dustin Johnson +325
Patrick Cantlay +850
Daniel Berger +1600
Paul Casey +2000
Will Zalatoris +2200
Jason Day +2500
Jordan Spieth +2500
Francesco Molinari +2500
Si Woo Kim +3500
Kevin Streelman +4000
Max Homa +4000
Cameron Davis +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Henrik Norlander +5000
Cameron Tringale +5000
Rickie Fowler +5000
Phil Mickelson +5000
Brian Harman +6000
Alex Noren +6000
Matt Kuchar +6000
Brendan Steele +6000
Wyndham Clark +6500
Matt Jones +6500
James Hahn +7000
Peter Malnati +8000
Matthew Nesmith +8000
Nick Taylor +8000
Maverick Mcnealy +8000
Chris Kirk +8000
Brandt Snedeker +8000
Russell Knox +8000
Rafa Cabrera Bello +8000
Chez Reavie +8000
Harold Varner III +8000
Patton Kizzire +8000
Joel Dahmen +8500
Adam Long +9000
Rory Sabbatini +9000
Doug Ghim +9000
Odds Analysis
Jason Day +2500
This is a setup that plays into Day’s strengths making him a worthwhile investment. His ball trajectory is like radar finding the small greens and he’s never in a hurry. Day has done everything but win at Pebble Beach so maybe it’s time. He’s 11 for 11 with a runner-up in 2018 among his nine top-15 finishes. Even though he missed the cut in his last two starts I’m banking on his course form and knowledge to stand out this week.
Max Homa +4000
I’m always searching for value picks which is why I often stay away from the favorites. No stranger to Pebble Beach, Homa is a regular at this event and his results have been encouraging. The Cal-Berkeley product finally broke through for a top-10 in 2019 and followed that with a T14 last year. Recent overall form has been solid if not spectacular with a three top-25s in his last four starts.
Matt Jones +6500
Nick Taylor snuck up on everybody last year to win the title. Actually he didn’t sneak up since he led wire-to-wire, but you get the idea. Who’s to say it can’t happen again. And one sneaky good player is Jones, who had a personal-best T5 last year for his third top-10 at this event. There’s nothing that suggests Jones will be among the leaders, but we didn’t see anything from Taylor ahead of last year’s edition so who knows. Jones has made eight straight cuts with a best of T4 at the Bermuda Championship in that run.
Phil Mickelson +5000
You can’t talk about the Pebble Beach Pro Am without mentioning Mickelson. The game has devolved to Champions Tour status but wouldn’t one last go at his favorite event make headlines. His last Tour win was here in 2019 and Lefty has talked about his fondness and comfort on poa annua greens, which is probably why he’s been so successful. He’s won this thing a record-tying five times with an additional two runner-up and two third-place showings. I would have no problem backing Lefty if the odds were a longer however I think he’s still worth a look.
Jordan Spieth +2500
Looks like I was one week premature in my praise of Spieth. I had him at the Farmers and he missed the cut. He came back last week to contend with a potential slump-busting T4 at the Phoenix Open. Now he takes on a course that yielded him a victory in 2017 among seven top-25s in eight starts. I thought Spieth would break out sooner, but it’s never too late to back a player with tremendous upside.
Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links (host) – 7,051 yards, Par 72
With no pro-am this year the Monterey Peninsula Course has been scrubbed from the rotation. That’s bad news for the field since it was considered the easiest of the three. Golfers will instead play a single round at Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill over the first two days. Cut survivors will play the final 36 holes on the majestic Pebble Beach layout. Stretched out to just over 7,000 yards it’s the shortest track on Tour with wide open fairways that don’t pose a threat. Accuracy off the tee isn’t a problem, but approach shots have to find small greens that are surrounded by strategically placed bunkers. Similar in length at 7,041 yards, Spyglass Hill has yielded an average score of 72.2 over the last decade. It may be short but it certainly isn’t easy. Conditions are expected to be better than last year however, it will be cool with coastal winds always a factor on the host course.
TV Coverage: CBS, Golf Channel
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