The first leg of the FedExCup playoffs takes place this week with the top 125 players in the standings earning a spot in the field for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Formerly the Northern Trust, I guess it’s only fitting the shipping company play a larger role since its name is plastered all over the PGA Tour. This is the only playoff tournament with a cut, so things will get intense with the top-70 in the standings after this event moving on to next week’s BMW Championship. Scottie Scheffler leads the standings and is the top-ranked player in the world yet he’s positioned behind betting favorite Rory McIlroy on the odds board. Tony Finau attempts to defend his title from last season’s playoff opener, which he won in a playoff over Cameron Smith. Finau closed this season with back-to-back wins after ending a five-year drought title drought last year at the Northern Trust. BookMaker.eu has a complete updated list of betting odds when you’re ready to make a wager.
Odds to Win FedEx St. Jude Championship
Rory McIlroy +1100
Scottie Scheffler +1500
Cameron Smith +1600
Patrick Cantlay +1800
Jon Rahm +2000
Justin Thomas +2000
Xander Schauffele +2000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2200
Tony Finau +2200
Jordan Spieth +2500
Will Zalatoris +2500
Cameron Young +2800
Collin Morikawa +3000
Sam Burns +3000
Viktor Hovland +3300
Brendon Todd +3500
Shane Lowry +3500
Sungjae Im +3500
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Joohyung Kim +4000
Billy Horschel +5000
Joaquin Niemann +5000
Max Homa +5500
Tyrrell Hatton +5500
Aaron Wise +6000
Corey Conners +6000
Russell Henley +6600
Cameron Davis +8000
Harold Varner III +8000
Seamus Power +8000
Davis Riley +9000
Taylor Pendrith +9000
Odds Analysis
Sam Burns +3000
He’s third in the FedExCup standings stringing together an impressive season with three outright titles, so it isn’t a stretch to consider him. He closed the regular season on a flat note finishing outside the top-25 three times with a MC in his last four starts, but what he accomplished prior to that was impressive. His strong iron play has him ranked 19th on Tour in GIR and he has the longest odds of any of my picks showing he might be underrated, and that’s just how he likes it.
Patrick Cantlay +1800
You’ll notice a trend that all my selections are higher up the odds board than usual. That’s because the playoffs are slightly different and we’ve seen big name players have success in the past. Cantlay is one of those players. He used a T23 at TPC Southwind last year as a springboard to a run that saw him win the BMW and TOUR Championship taking home the grand prize. He’s also on an impressive run with six consecutive top-15s with half of those doubling as top-5s, including his last outing when he finished as runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Jon Rahm +2000
It hasn’t been the best season, at least by Rahm’s standards, but you can’t count out one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s well rested since he hasn’t pegged it up since The Open and he’s guaranteed a spot in the BMW, which worries me. But we’ve seen Rahm light it up in the past and he’s had success at TPC Southwind so I don’t think he’s going to take it easy. And when he’s on he’s an absolute beast.
Scottie Scheffler +1500
You can’t say he’s in a slump, but Scheffler hasn’t won since early April setting the bar extremely high with four titles this season. Going 7 for 9 with no finish worse than T21 and two runner-up showings since his last win are results anyone on Tour would take. But for Scheffler it has to be more and his overall game hasn’t wavered much all year. Scores on this course tend to be much better for players who can hit the greens and Scheffler leads the Tour in GIR percentage and has the second-best birdie average.
Jordan Spieth +2500
We saw Spieth emerge from a slump last year with those positive vibes carrying over for a tremendous season. Like Rahm he hasn’t played since a T8 at The Open and he’s missed just one cut in his last nine starts with five top-10s. Better play with the irons and flat stick had a lot to do with his recent success and those are areas that need to be clean in order to contend. I feel like Spieth is a sleeper not getting much attention, so I’ll give it to him with the hope that he finishes the deal.
Course: TPC Southwind – 7,243 yards, Par 70
A PGA Tour host since 1989, TPC Southwind was elevated to WGC status in 2019 and will entertain its first playoff tournament this week. It’s a stock par 70 that stretches to 7,243 yards and is similar to what the field saw a few weeks ago at TPC Twin Cities, which should make Finau happy. With narrow fairways, long and straight off the tee is a bonus. But this is more of a second-shot course and hitting greens in regulation is huge. Besides the overall length, bunkers were remodeled a few years back to present more of a defense. Water also comes into play on several holes giving strong iron players an advantage. The past three WGC winners scored 13-under or better with Abraham Ancer at -16 prevailing last year in a playoff.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC
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