Looking to defend the title he won by three swings last year, Tony Finau is a huge favorite in the outright market at the Mexico Open at Vidanta. Finau has been wildly successful in the two editions as a PGA Tour sanctioned event also finishing as runner-up to Jon Rahm in 2022. The lack of Signature status this week leaves the field thinned out with Nicolai Hojgaard the only other player with shorter than 20/1 odds. A number of players make up the second tier on the outright betting board with all of them featured in several tournament matchups. The Mexico Open has been played since the 1940’s as the country’s national open with Vidanta Vallarta hosting for the first time in 2022. The pros have torn up the resort course with Finau a blistering 24-under last year after Rahm won at 17-under in 2022. Visit BookMaker.eu for an updated list of matchup betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Mexico Open at Vidanta Matchup Odds
Tony Finau -155 vs. Nicolai Hojgaard +129
Tony Finau -219 vs. Emiliano Grillo +180
Nicolai Hojgaard -140 vs. Emiliano Grillo +117
Thorbjorn Olesen +119 vs. Stephan Jaeger -143
Thorbjorn Olesen +102 vs. Thomas Detry -122
Stephan Jaeger -125 vs. Thomas Detry +105
Keith Mitchell +100 vs. Patrick Rodgers -120
Keith Mitchell -110 vs. Taylor Pendrith -110
Patrick Rodgers -105 vs. Taylor Pendrith -115
Jake Knapp +106 vs. Erik Van Rooyen -127
Jake Knapp -105 vs. Ryan Fox -115
Erik Van Rooyen -120 vs. Ryan Fox +100
Brandon Wu -110 vs. Justin Suh -110
Ryo Hisatsune -141 vs. Mackenzie Hughes +118
Cameron Champ -132 vs. Charley Hoffman +110
Chesson Hadley +106 vs. Jhonattan Vegas -127
Michael Kim -110 vs. S.H. Kim -110
Austin Eckroat -122 vs. Maverick McNealy +102
Matt Wallace -127 vs. K.H. Lee +106
Nate Lashley -114 vs. Alex Smalley -106
Alexander Bjork +130 vs. Sam Stevens -157
Christopher Gotterup -105 vs. Carson Young -115
Sami Valimaki -132 vs. Aaron Baddeley +110
Greyson Sigg -120 vs. JJ Spaun +100
Chan Kim -138 vs. Patton Kizzire +115
Victor Perez -115 vs. Garrick Higgo -105
Tyler Duncan -134 vs. Harry Hall +112
Parker Coody -120 vs. Joe Highsmith +100
Robby Shelton -127 vs. Andrew Novak +106
Robert MacIntyre -127 vs. Ryan Palmer +106
Need to Know
The Mexico Open has become a good event to pad stats with host Vidanta Vallarta offering little resistance over the first two playings. A total of 29 golfers finished double digits under par last season bettering the 23 that went 10-under or better in 2022. There were changes made to the layout ahead of the Tour’s arrival with additional yardage tacked on and bunkers added and reshaped. The course stretches to 7,456 yards at par-71 and is similar to other seaside resort courses we see on Tour. Wide fairways open it up to blasts off the tee, which could be advantageous. The layout for a par 71 is a little different with four par-5s and five par-3s. Big hitters will have an edge on five par 4s that measure 475 yards or longer. The pros usually devour resort courses and Vidanta Vallarta isn’t any different.
Mexico Open at Vidanta Matchup Picks
Emiliano Grillo +117 vs. Nicolai Hojgaard
My value picks paid off handsomely last week with a 3-1-1 record at the Genesis, so I’m going back to the format with Grillo a nice plus-odds dog in this matchup with the second favorite. There’s a reason why Hojgaard is up the odds board, but Grillo has been equally consistent, though he hasn’t gotten a W. Better performance with the flat stick has Grillo boasting four top 25s in six starts and he finished strong for a T5 here last year.
Andrew Novak +106 vs. Robby Shelton
There are players that perform better on a certain type of grass and Novak really enjoys working on paspalum courses with his game increasing several notches. It might be just a coincidence but he is 7 for his last 7 on the grass with four of those finishes resulting in a top 25. And, of course, Vidanta has paspalum so Novak should feel right at home. And he’s coming off a solid T8 a few weeks back in Phoenix giving him plenty of upside in this matchup.
Maverick McNealy +102 vs. Austin Eckroat
Give McNealy credit for sticking to it and we’re about to see his determination pay off. Hampered by injuries that not only prevented him from competing but also earning that elusive first Tour win, McNealy appears to be recovered enough to make a run. And he employs the style of game that is conducive to good results. Progressively better results saw McNealy finish T6 in Phoenix, his best in more than two years.
Brandon Wu -110 vs. Justin Suh
With Rahm off to LIV Golf it appears the only player in Wu’s way is Finau. In 2022 Wu tied with Finau one-shot back of Rahm for the trophy. Last year Wu finished alone in third five swings behind Finau and two behind Rahm despite grabbing a share of the lead on the Sunday turn. A T18 at Waialae is his best finish this season, but given his affection for this layout I’ll back Wu in this matchup.
Patrick Rodgers -105 vs. Taylor Pendrith
If he started last year’s tournament the way he finished we’d be talking about Rodgers as the defending champ. He closed last year with a Sunday-best 7-under vaulting into a share of 10th, which is exactly where he finished the 2022 edition. He’s been good enough to earn an exemption into all Signature Events yet he’s still searching for that first Tour victory. And in a field like this he might just get there
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