Here’s something different; a surge of people heading across the border only in the other direction as the PGA Tour heads to Mexico with defending champ Tony Finau a big favorite to repeat at the Mexico Open at Vidanta. Played in some form as the country’s national championship since 1944, the 2022 edition was the first sanctioned by the PGA Tour with a full allotment of FedExCup points and a nice paycheck to the winner. The same holds true this year with the tournament moved up on the calendar as the final one before the Tour heads east. It’s easy to see why Finau is a prohibitive favorite since all he’s done since the event debuted in 2022 was go T2-1. With the Signature Event title lifted the field is slightly watered down with Nicolai Hojgaard the second favorite and only other golfer with shorter than 20/1 odds on the opening line. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Mexico Open at Vidanta Betting Odds
Tony Finau +750
Nicolai Hojgaard +1550
Keith Mitchell +2350
Emiliano Grillo +2650
Stephan Jaeger +2750
Thomas Detry +2750
Taylor Pendrith +2850
Patrick Rodgers +3200
Thorbjorn Olesen +3350
Erik Van Rooyen +3450
Davis Thompson +4250
Ryan Fox +4300
Maverick McNealy +4450
Ryo Hisatsune +4550
Cameron Champ +4550
Doug Ghim +4503
S.H. Kim +4650
Brandon Wu +4850
Aaron Rai +5050
Chris Gotterup +5150
Michael Kim +5250
Austin Eckroat +5250
Vincent Norrman +5250
Jake Knapp +5450
Mark Hubbard +5550
Justin Suh +5550
Sam Stevens +5854
Mackenzie Hughes +5950
Matt Wallace +6054
Alejandro Tosti +6550
Jhonattan Vegas +6850
J.J. Spaun +7050
Odds Analysis
Tony Finau +750
There’s not a ton of value backing Finau at his price, but given the success he’s had on this course it’s ludicrous not to at least consider him for the outright. He lost by one swing to Rahm in 2022 and was never seriously threatened in his three-shot win last year. His last six rounds at Vidanta have been 66 or lower with a scoring average of 64.8 in that stretch. And he enters on a run of form that produced three top 25s in his last four starts.
Emiliano Grillo +2650
I’m taking a close look at Grillo with his improved putting being a key element to victory in this tournament. But it’s been a solid overall game that’s led the Argentinian to four top 25s while going 6 for 6 this season. And if the trend of success at this venue continues there’s a good chance Grillo is in the running on Sunday. He made the cut here both times with a personal best T5 last year following a closing 65.
Garrick Higgo +8050
We have seen several unexpected winners on Tour already this season and this is the type of tournament that can certainly a deliver another. With one Tour win and seven titles overall on his resume, Higgo certainly knows his way to the winners circle. He hasn’t been a threat early this season, but he possesses the power to own Vidanta and with better touch on and around the green’s Higgo can potentially pull off a big upset.
Maverick McNealy +4450
Still in search of his first Tour victory, McNealy has overcome obstacles to be in a good spot this week. Various injuries have plagued the Stanford product for the better part of a year but he’s back and feeling giddy about his T6 in Phoenix a few weeks ago, which was best finish in over two years. He also displayed a balanced bag at TPC Scottsdale that will only benefit him on this layout.
Brandon Wu +4850
There’ve only been two editions of this tournament as an official PGA event with Wu among the best finishers each time. And since I’m using past success as a benchmark I have to back Wu since only three golfers finished better than him. He’s overvalued due to past success but priced high enough to get a nice payout. He hasn’t been sharp on the lead in but that didn’t matter last year when he briefly tied for the lead on Sunday before falling third.
Course: Vidanta Vallarta – 7,456 yards, Par 71
At nearly 7,500 yards, Vidanta Vallarta is a relatively long par 71. Making its debut on Tour in 2022 was the first time many in the field experienced the layout, though that wasn’t much of an issue. Jon Rahm finished 17-under to win the debut with Finau scorching the track to 24-under last year. Prior to the arrival of the PGA Tour the course underwent a major overhaul with close to 200 additional yards, new and reworked bunkers and a reduced par from 73 to 71. It is a resort course and offers little resistance to the professionals. The main defense is water, which comes into play on 11 holes, and over 100 bunkers could be troublesome. Positioning off the tee is crucial with little in terms of weather expected to be a factor.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC
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