With the West Coast swing completed, the PGA Tour heads south of the border to Naucalpan, Mexico, for this week’s WGC-Mexico Championship. The second WGC event of the season is contested on the 7,345-yard, par-71 Club de Golf Chapultepec for a fourth consecutive year with OWGR No. 1 Rory McIlroy opening as the betting favorite at online sportsbooks. The limited field of 72 golfers features some of the best in the world in what is sure to be a hotly-contested tournament. Dustin Johnson captured the inaugural title in 2017 and posted a five-shot victory last season. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Rory McIlroy +550
Dustin Johnson +625
Jon Rahm +750
Justin Thomas +987
Webb Simpson +1754
Xander Schauffele +1754
Adam Scott +1854
Hideki Matsuyama +1854
Tommy Fleetwood +2054
Bryson Dechambeau +3061
Paul Casey +3900
Louis Oosthuizen +4350
Collin Morikawa +4550
Patrick Reed +4650
Matthew Fitzpatrick +5000
Gary Woodland +5300
Sergio Garcia +5450
Matt Kuchar +5850
Abraham Ancer +7250
Sungjae Im +7450
Jordan Spieth +7850
Bubba Watson +8050
Marc Leishman +8050
Shane Lowry +8550
Rafa Cabrera Bello +8550
Pablo Larrazabal +9050
Tyrrell Hatton +9050
Byeong Hun An +9550
Brandt Snedeker +9550
Billy Horschel +9550
Kevin Kisner +9550
Graeme McDowell +9550
Justin Harding +10000
Scottie Scheffler +10000
Victor Perez +10000
Carlos Ortiz +10550
Cameron Smith +10500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10550
Odds Analysis
Dustin Johnson +625
McIlroy is the favorite and a conservative pick with a short payout. He’s likely to be in contention since he is in nearly every event he plays. So instead of going with Rory I’m looking at Johnson, who opened as the second favorite. I know, it’s another safe pick, but can you fault me for backing a guy who absolutely loves this layout. He has two wins in the first three tournaments in Mexico ending five-swings clear of McIlroy 12 months ago. Half of DJs rounds at this joint are 66 or lower and he has six WGC wins under his belt.
Xander Schauffele +1754
Schauffele is to WGCs what Brooks Koepka is to majors. Not really, but you get the idea that the X-man plays well in these tournaments. Defending his title at the WGC-HSBC Champions earlier this season, Schauffele finished as runner-up. He’s also placed among the top-25 in six of his eight WGC starts, and he’s been right there in two starts at Club de Golf Chapultepec with a T18 and T14. One poor round each time cost him a better finish, but he has shown the ability to score well on this course.
Sergio Garcia +5450
Garcia has been finishing in the top-10 in every other start for the past few months. And if that trend continues he looks like a good pick this week. Serge had an uneventful T37 at Riviera last week and he’s a big fan of this layout. And I’m a big fan of Garcia and his current price. His finish has improved each year at Chapultepec with nothing outside the top-12. And get this, he’s never shot a round over par. That could be the kiss of death or a sign that the pot of gold is waiting under the rainbow.
Abraham Ancer +7250
There’s always something to be said about playing on home soil, and Ancer has that privilege this week as Mexico’s top talent. He’s making a third start at this event, but Ancer has accomplished so much since last year’s T39. And his recent form is strong with a solo second at The American Express and a T6 at the Euro Tour’s Saudi International. I’ll give him a pass on his T43 at Riviera since he was obviously looking ahead to this week.
Louis Oosthuizen +4350
And speaking of the Euro circuit, Oosthuizen has been one of the best with a hot run of recent form. He has four top-5s in his last seven worldwide starts going T6-T20-T23 in the other three. He also steps up his game at the WGCs with three top-10s among his six straight top-25s. Oosthuizen is among the many European Tour players who like this course, saying it reminds them of tracks used on the ET.
Course: Club de Golf Chapultepec – 7,345 yards, Par 71
Considering the layout is situated over a mile-and-a-quarter above sea level, players will get added length on their drives making the track play much shorter than its listed 7,345 yards. Because of that we might think accuracy is a key stat this week. Hitting the golf ball where you want it to go and keeping if free of obstacles is always a plus, but it’s not entirely the name of the game here. Looking at grass types and tricky greens there are a lot of similarities to the Riviera Course played last week. Those who played well could have an edge. Adjusting to the altitude is the biggest obstacle, but the track is also lined with trees, and players will have to maneuver around them if they get off line.
TV Coverage: NBC, Golf Channel
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