The field has been whittled down to the top 70 in the PGA Tour’s points standings and those players assemble this week at Medinah Country Club just outside of Chicago for the BMW Championship. The second-leg of the FedExCup Playoffs has plenty at stake with the top 30 earning a spot in next week’s final Tour event and the handsome payout that goes along with winning. First things first, though. A number of players are currently outside the top 30 and need a strong finish this week to advance. Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm sit atop the odds list at top online sportsbooks but they won’t take it easy, making for some intriguing matchups and we have the list and odds here.
BMW Championship Matchup Odds at BookMaker.eu
Abraham Ancer -137 vs. Rory Sabbatini +107
Patrick Cantlay -155 vs. Patrick Reed +124
Brooks Koepka +124 vs. Rory McIlroy -155
Webb Simpson -122 vs. Tommy Fleetwood -108
Dustin Johnson -136 vs. Justin Thomas +106
Jason Day -140 vs. Billy Horschel +110
Rafael Cabrera Bello -114 vs. Ryan Moore -116
Marc Leishman -108 vs. Shane Lowry -122
Louis Oosthuizen +101 vs. Paul Casey -131
Rory McIlroy -125 vs. Jon Rahm -105
Tony Finau -102 vs. Xander Schauffele -128
Ian Poulter -121 vs. Francesco Molinari -109
Jordan Spieth +129 vs. Rickie Fowler -162
Jason Kokrak -133 vs. Brandt Snedeker +103
Adam Scott -140 vs. Patrick Reed +110
Brooks Koepka +120 vs. Jon Rahm -150
Dustin Johnson -107 vs. Justin Rose -123
Justin Thomas +100 vs. Justin Rose -130
Hideki Matsuyama -131 vs. Matt Kuchar +102
Patrick Cantlay -138 vs. Adam Scott +108
Andrew Putnam -106 vs. Joaquin Niemann -124
Collin Morikawa -140 vs. Gary Woodland +110
Kevin Kisner +121 vs. Byeong-Hun An -152
Sungjae Im -112 vs. Chez Reavie -118
Need to Know
We won’t get into the debacle I had with my matchup picks at last week’s Northern Trust. Let’s just say I dropped some coin on Tiger Woods. Big mistake. We’re running out of time to make dinero on the pro golfers with this being the penultimate tournament of the season. My record remains solid with a better than 55 percent success rate, though that number decreased slightly after last week. With a max field of 70 there is no cut this week, so we don’t have to sweat the first two days. Medinah Country Club will host this event for the first time, though it has hosted five major championships and the 2012 Ryder Cup. Medinah No. 3 is known for its length and tree-lined fairways. The track stretches to 7,657 yards, but according to several golfers it plays shorter. That’s because three par-5s measure 590 yards with two over 605 yards. Driving distance and accuracy will be keys this week.
BMW Championship Matchup Picks
Paul Casey -131 vs. Louis Oosthuizen
I’m leaning toward Casey in this matchup simply because he didn’t play last week and looks to finish with a flourish. The move paid off in the standings with a just a slight drop to 13th and a strong showing will move him back up. The slip in the points race is a small price to pay now that he’s rested and ready to attack the field. There’s always a chance the move backfires, but he has the entire tournament to figure it out.
Jason Kokrak -133 vs. Brandt Snedeker
Outside the top-30 entering play, Kokrak needs a good week, and his distance off the tee will allow him to navigate Medinah better than his matchup partner. Being so close to qualifying for his first Tour Championship in seven tries is another reason why I like Kokrak in this one. Snedeker is in a more comfortable position after a T6 last week. Not that he’s going to roll over, but the motivation is there for Kokrak.
Brooks Koepka +124 vs. Rory McIlroy
We all know about Koepka’s performance in non-majors and he did it again last week with a T30 at The Northern Trust. Betting against McIlroy could be a death sentence since he’s been the most consistent player on Tour all year. There is a reason why I’m backing Brooks in this matchup. Not only is the price right, but he can taste the top spot in the standings and the head start that comes with it next week. If that’s not enough of a motivator I’m not sure what is.
Billy Horschel +110 vs. Jason Day -140
I’m not sure what to expect from Day given the recent split with his caddie. Stuff like that tends to play with a guy’s head, especially when that relationship was thought to be long-term. So, while Day works on his personal stuff I’ll take Horschel and his plus-odds in this matchup. Horschel showed me a lot last week, bouncing back from an opening 72 to fight his way to a T21 finish. He averages just under 292 yards off the tee, which isn’t great for this course. But his putting was lights out last week and has been solid all year. Horschel also needs to make up some ground since he enters at No. 39 on the points list.
Patrick Reed +124 vs. Patrick Cantlay -155
Reed is on a heater and it got even better with his win at Liberty National last week. There could be some concern over a letdown this week, but Reed is only about 200 points out of first in the race and he’s making a move up the Presidents Cup list as well. Reed has a lot on his plate, but worrying about his game isn’t one of them with six consecutive top-25 showings.
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