Staying in the Sunshine State this week, the PGA Tour moves to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, contested at the Bay Hill Golf Club and Lodge. The field will be minus one big name as eight-time winner Tiger Woods withdrew, opening up the odds board for defending champion Rory McIlroy, who came off as the betting favorite at BookMaker.eu with odds of +685. It’s not a Major but still a prestigious Tour stop attracting some of the most talented golfers in the world.
McIlroy is joined at the top of the odds list by Brooks Koepka ( +1001 ) and Justin Rose ( +1001 ) with Rickie Fowler ( +1252 ) the fourth favorite. Koepka and Fowler finished as runners-up at last week’s Honda Classic, one-shot behind Keith Mitchell, who was down the list with odds of +10050.
Odds to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational at BookMaker.eu
Rory McIlroy +685
Brooks Koepka +1001
Justin Rose +1001
Rickie Fowler +1252
Jason Day +1452
Bryson Dechambeau +1452
Marc Leishman +2859
Hideki Matsuyama +3026
Tommy Fleetwood +3663
Francesco Molinari +3663
Patrick Reed +4550
Phil Mickelson +5550
Lucas Glover +5550
Henrik Stenson +6050
Bubba Watson +6050
Ian Poulter +6050
Charles Howell III +6550
Si Woo Kim +7050
Daniel Berger +7050
Billy Horschel +7050
Tyrrell Hatton +7550
Jason Kokrak +8050
Louis Oosthuizen +8050
Haotong Li +8050
Keegan Bradley +8050
Zach Johnson +9050
Cameron Champ +9050
Rafa Cabrera Bello +9050
Adam Hadwin +9050
Matt Every +10050
Byeong Hun An +10050
Michael Thompson +10050
Luke List +10050
Keith Mitchell +10050
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +12050
Kevin Kisner +12050
Matt Wallace +12050
Charl Schwartzel +12050
Shane Lowry +12050
J.B. Holmes +12050
Sungjae Im +12050
Matthew Fitzpatrick +12050
Aaron Wise +12050
Field - Any Players Not Listed Above +235
Odds Analysis
Rory McIlroy +685
It’s boring to go with the favorite, but McIlroy has done everything but win so far this season, and with Tiger out of the picture, the API is his for the taking. And considering the run of form he’s on and that he’s the defending champ, his odds are decent. “I love the golf course. I think it’s a golf course that suits me really well. You can kill the par 5s. You don’t really need to do much more after that. So it’s a course that suits me well,” McIlroy said about Bay Hill before winning last year. Oh, and he’s gone T4, T5, T4, runner-up in four 2019 starts.
Henrik Stenson +6050
Further down the odds board after a few bad outings, a home game might be just what Stenson needs to jump start his game. He missed the cut in all three Euro Tour events through the Middle East, and at least he made it to the weekend in Mexico, though a T54 with four rounds above 70 isn’t anything to get excited about. Stenson resides within spitting distance of the layout and he is 9 for 10 with six top-15 finishes in his last seven starts at Bay Hill.
Francesco Molinari +3663
He faded late here last year, which should be a motivating factor. And Molinari knows the course well and has had plenty of success. He’s coming off a consistent effort at the WGC Mexico with a -6 for T17, but it’s his play at Bay Hill that makes him a contender. The 2018 British Open champ has three top-10s in his last five starts at the API and he’s 6 for 6 in his career, highlighted by a T5 in 2014. He hasn’t played much this year, but his showing in Mexico was evidence that there is no rust.
Ian Poulter +6050
He could be the hottest golfer on Tour that nobody’s paying attention to. And that could be a mistake for the field, but a boon to the pocketbook of betters. The Englishman is enjoying a run of fantastic form with a T6 or better in each of his last four worldwide starts, capped by a T3 two weeks ago at WGC in Mexico. Poulter lives in Orlando and has played the API every year since 2011 making the cut every time while placing among the top-25 five years in a row form 2011-15. He’s another player down the odds board with a home town discount and Poulter could upset the field.
Course: Bay Hill Golf Club and Lodge – 7,419 yards, Par 72
Despite the length this layout begs for a conservative game plan with hazards all over the place. There is plenty of water and the long approach shots call for strong play with the irons. Scores are going to be made on the par-5s with all of them susceptible to low numbers. However, the par-5 sixth is the most difficult on the course with water down the left side that can lead to some big numbers if guys decide to take a swim. The first and second holes greet golfers with two of the toughest on the layout. Get past them and it’s rather clear sailing until No. 18, which many consider the hardest to navigate on the track. Early forecast calls for temps in the 70s with calm winds, making ideal conditions to golf.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC
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