The FedExCup Playoffs continue this week with the top-70 golfers in the point standings making their way to Medinah Country Club for the BMW Championship. It’s the last chance for a number of players to make the top-30 for the final PGA Tour event of the season, the Tour Championship at East Lake. The usual suspects opened at the top of the odds board at online sportsbooks. Brooks Koepka is the betting favorite with Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm the only players at better than 10/1 odds. There is no cut this week so every player in the field will have four rounds to make a statement.
Odds to Win BMW Championship at BookMaker.eu
Brooks Koepka +725
Rory McIlroy +775
Jon Rahm +850
Justin Thomas +1050
Dustin Johnson +1250
Patrick Cantlay +1550
Justin Rose +1705
Patrick Reed +1850
Adam Scott +2325
Webb Simpson +2550
Tommy Fleetwood +2750
Jordan Spieth +3225
Tony Finau +3850
Rickie Fowler +3875
Xander Schauffele +4250
Louis Oosthuizen +5025
Bryson Dechambeau +5250
Paul Casey +5250
Billy Horschel +5350
Hideki Matsuyama +5950
Collin Morikawa +6550
Jason Day +6850
Tiger Woods +7250
Brandt Snedeker +7445
Jason Kokrak +7525
Ian Poulter +7550
Ryan Moore +8050
Matt Kuchar +8250
Francesco Molinari +8500
Andrew Putnam +8750
Byeong Hun An +8750
Shane Lowry +9050
Abraham Ancer +9250
Gary Woodland +9550
Sungjae Im +9550
Marc Leishman +9550
Rory Sabbatini +9550
Rafael Cabrera Bello +9850
Chez Reavie +9850
Kevin Kisner +10000
Joaquin Niemann +10550
Lucas Glover +10550
Charles Howell III +11050
Keegan Bradley +11550
Adam Hadwin +11550
Cameron Champ +11550
Scott Piercy +12050
Harold Varner III +12050
Corey Conners +12550
Jim Furyk +12550
Wyndham Clark +12550
Troy Merritt +13550
C.T. Pan +13550
Phil Mickelson +14050
Dylan Frittelli +14550
Kevin Tway +15050
Emiliano Grillo +15050
Si Woo Kim +15050
JT Poston +15550
Ryan Palmer +16550
Keith Mitchell +17550
Vaughn Taylor +17550
Max Homa +18550
Graeme McDowell +18550
Sung Kang +18550
JB Holmes +18550
Nate Lashley +18550
Joel Dahmen +18550
Adam Long +20050
Odds Analysis
Tiger Woods +7250
The mind is willing but the body isn’t. Tiger tried to give it a go at The Northern Trust but withdraw after the opening round with an oblique injury, which is something entirely different than the back issues that slowed him all season. Woods got everybody excited following his Masters win, but that looks more like the exception and not the norm after watching Woods labor through a few events since April. Woods won the last two PGA Championships played at Medinah, but that seems like a long time ago. The odds are tempting, especially considering it’s Tiger, but the best move is to stay away.
Paul Casey +5250
While other golfers were scrambling around for points last week, Casey enjoyed a well-deserved week off. And he didn’t lose too much ground in the standings, which is another plus for him. He’s ready to finish with a flourish and will have a jump on the field, which makes him a great value pick at his odds. Not having a cut certainly helps as it gives Casey time to work out any kinks that may have developed during his down time. Likely not a problem considering he has seven top-10s worldwide this year.
Jon Rahm +850
At what point does Rahm become aggravated with just another top-10 or better finish? It happened again last week when the Spaniard finished two-shots off the pace for a T3. He’ll get the whole playoff thing right eventually, I suspect. For Rahm it was his sixth top-11 finish in nine playoff starts, and he’s been good in non-playoff events leading up to the BMW. He finished T11 or better in each of his last four PGA Tour starts with a solo seventh and two T3s.
Patrick Reed +1850
Reed was performing splendidly leading up to The Northern Trust and everything fell into place with his one-shot victory, now he heads to Medinah with even more confidence. Reed has placed among the top-25 in all of his last six starts, with a T10 at The Open. Another strong showing could attract the eye of Presidents Cup captain Tiger Woods while also moving further up the points list.
Billy Horschel +5350
An opening 72 at Liberty National could have been disastrous, but Horschel regrouped and fought his way into a T21. Putting certainly helped last week when he led the field in strokes gained with the flat stick while going perfect from eight feet and less on the greens. Hitting the dance floor will be the biggest challenge. However, once there Horschel should feel right at home and that could be enough to get him to the top of the leaderboard.
Course: Medinah Country Club – 7,657 yards, Par 72
Medinah has hosted five majors over the years with the PGA Championship in 1999 and 2006 the most recent. Both of those were won by Tiger Woods. The 2012 Ryder Cup took place at Medinah No. 3 as well as three U.S. Opens. At 7,657 yards the length is deceptive. According to a number of players the course plays shorter than that. Three par-5s take up a bulk of the yardage with two of them measuring over 600 yards. The fairways are tree-lined and the second rough is grown to four inches. It would be wise to stay out of the thick stuff. Water comes into play on a few holes, but not much the field will be concerned with. Overall, the track is in good condition and should yield average scores in the 70 range.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC
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