Now that the West Coast swing with a stop in Mexico is complete, the PGA Tour is off to the Sunshine state for its next stop. The guys will play the next six tournaments in Florida and Texas ahead of the Masters in April with the first destination being Palm Beach for the Honda Classic. The field is a bit diluted from previous events with many of the pros picking and choosing their stops ahead of the first Major.
Defending champ Justin Thomas made the trip and looks to follow up on his final round 62 in Mexico that elevated him into the top-10. JT came off as the betting favorite at BookMaker with odds of +495. While not as loaded as previous tournaments, there are high-profile golfers that can overtake the favorite if Thomas gets fatigued.
Odds to Win Honda Classic at BookMaker.eu
Justin Thomas +495
Rickie Fowler +930
Brooks Koepka +1200
Adam Scott +1400
Sergio Garcia +1600
Gary Woodland +1800
Webb Simpson +2200
Cameron Smith +2500
Daniel Berger +3500
Billy Horschel +3500
Emiliano Grillo +4000
Luke List +4000
Scott Piercy +4500
Byeong Hun An +4500
Alex Noren +4500
Russell Knox +5500
Matt Wallace +5500
Michael Thompson +6000
Lucas Glover +6000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +6000
Jason Kokrak +6000
Zach Johnson +6000
J.T. Poston +6600
Charl Schwartzel +6600
Graeme McDowell +7000
Russell Henley +7000
Sung-Jae Im +7000
Trey Mullinax +8000
Sung Kang +8000
Dylan Frittelli +8000
Martin Kaymer +9000
Brian Harman +9000
C.T. Pan +10000
Talor Gooch +10000
Ryan Palmer +10000
Patton Kizzire +11000
Jim Furyk +11000
Chesson Hadley +11000
Odds Analysis
Justin Thomas +495
He’s the betting favorite and the defending champion, but Thomas also put a lot of work in over the last few weeks and I have to wonder if that’s going to catch up with him. It was hit or miss last week for JT with an opening 66 and a closing 62 to elevate him into solo ninth. In between he shot a 73 and 74. And his game has been just as perplexing at PGA National. He missed the cut in 2015 and 2017, but if he makes it to the weekend look out. JT won the whole enchilada last year in a playoff and was T3 in 2016.
Cameron Smith +2500
If you’re looking for a nice payout, which I’m sure you are or you wouldn’t be wagering on this event, look at Smith to give it to you. He’s not a household name in the States – yet, but the Aussie continues to climb the world rankings. He’s carried the momentum from his win at the Australian Open in December into this year finishing among the top-15 in three of his last four starts. His current Tour stats show he could tame this layout moving inside the top-30 in scoring average and birdie average. And he’s coming off a solid performance in Mexico shooting under par in all four rounds to grab a share of sixth.
Rickie Fowler +930
We faded Fowler last week because of his struggles on poa annua greens and his lousy play in Mexico. Waiting for the Florida swing to come around, now’s the time to pounce. As expected, he didn’t do much last week, his low round was a 68 and the other three were over 70 for a T36 finish. This is kind of a homecoming for Fowler, who is a regular on this course having played it every year since 2010. He won the title two years ago and placed among the top-15 in two other starts here.
Adam Scott +1400
A quick glance at his numbers suggests Scott is a likely contender. One of the better ball strikers on Tour that should help him on this layout and it has in the past. He won in 2016 and has finished T14 or better in five of seven starts at PGA National. However, he has only one win since that 2016 title and he’s fallen down the rankings in GIR percentage, which could cause problems on this track.
Course: PGA National Champion Course – 7,110 yards, Par 70
The relatively short length and the number of water hazards make this an irons and woods setup. It’s a ball strikers layout so hit the fairways and give yourself a chance to reach the greens. It’s a simple strategy but the hazards have a way of freaking some players out. The legendary “Bear Trap” of holes 15-17 also creates plenty of drama. Since the first playing at PGA National in 2007 only three winners finished better than 10-under. Rickie Fowler was the last at 12-under in 2017. Lining up pars and playing conservatively should be the game plan and go for the big play only when necessary. The conditions are expected to be favorable and the winds that usually kick up at this time of year should be calm, which will help the scores.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC
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