The PGA Tour stays in the Lone Star state moving to San Antonio for this week’s Valero Texas Open. It’s the final tuneup before The Masters, and while players like to get that work in before a major, the field is lacking top-end talent. Some players say the TPC San Antonio Oaks Course isn’t a good prep for Augusta and several of them are taking the week off. That leaves Rickie Fowler, who is making his tournament debut this week, as the betting favorite with odds of +750 at BookMaker.eu. It’s also important to know that the winner, if not already invited, gets a free pass to Augusta next week.
Odds to Win Valero Texas Open at BookMaker.eu
Rickie Fowler +750
Tony Finau +1250
Matt Kuchar +1400
Jordan Spieth +2050
Billy Horschel +2375
Jason Kokrak +2775
Sungjae Im +2775
Lucas Glover +3025
Jim Furyk +3050
Abraham Ancer +3350
Byeong Hun An +4000
Luke List +5050
Haotong Li +5150
Lucas Bjerregaard +5525
Charley Hoffman +5600
Ryan Moore +5650
Jhonattan Vegas +5675
Ryan Palmer +6000
Aaron Baddeley +6000
Joost Luiten +6075
Jimmy Walker +6500
J.B. Holmes +6555
Si Woo Kim +6660
Joaquin Niemann +7000
Daniel Berger +7075
Dylan Frittelli +7575
Jonathan Byrd +8500
Chesson Hadley +8875
Ollie Schniederjans +8885
Austin Cook +9000
Graeme McDowell +9050
Russell Henley +9050
Sung Kang +9500
Joel Dahmen +9500
Denny McCarthy +9550
Andrew Putnam +9550
Bud Cauley +9800
Nick Taylor +9850
J.T. Poston +10000
Justin Harding +10000
Luke Donald +10000
Kramer Hickok +10250
Sam Burns +10250
Scott Stallings +10500
Ryan Armour +10525
Brian Harman +10575
Wyndham Clark +10575
Matt Jones +11000
Chris Kirk +11000
Trey Mullinax +11000
Field - Any Other Player Not Listed Above +185
Odds Analysis
Jason Kokrak +2775
Kokrak checks all the boxes for success this week. Good recent form. Check. Impressive stats that relate to this course. Check. Course knowledge. Check. It doesn’t mean anything, but I like his chances based on that, and the payout isn’t bad. Kokrak is coming off a runner-up showing at Valspar, his third top-10 in his last four starts. He’s among the top players in the field in approach, ball striking, tee to green and off the tee over the past 24 rounds, that should allow him to navigate the layout. The past two winners on this course were first-timers and Kokrak has two 15s at Valero. I think he’s worth the gamble.
Haotong Li +5150
Li won his group to advance to the round of 16 at last week’s WGC match play, but he’s down the odds board after missing the cut in each of his previous two stroke play Tour events. He’s enjoyed success on the Euro Tour with a solo second at the Saudi International, so he can play. With a limited sample size on the PGA Tour, Li rates out as one of the best in the field in driving distance and par 5 scoring. Also, some of his best finishes have been on traditional wind courses against much tougher competition.
Tony Finau +1250
We talked about Finau quite extensively earlier in the year and the shine has kind of worn off, but he continues to play solid golf. Lost in group play last week at the WGC match play so at least he had the weekend off to think about his failures and prep for this event. He has three top-25s in his last three stroke play starts and has made the cut in every event. Finau skipped last year’s playing, but he grabbed a T3 here in 2017, and he’s among the favorites in a weakened field.
Jordan Spieth +2050
This not the ideal course to try and snap out of a long-term slump, but Spieth is giving it a go. Maybe the decision was based on his last two starts here when he finished solo 10th and runner-up. That was several years ago, however, and the recent form is lagging. A native Texan, Spieth hasn’t played this event since 2015, which is strange. I guess he doesn’t care for the layout, especially after it delivered him a T41 and MC in his two previous go-rounds. I’m not convinced Spieth is ready to snap out of his funk and there is better value further down the odds board.
Course: TPC San Antonio Oaks Course – 7,435 yards, Par 72
Host of this event since 2010, the Oaks Course is a lengthy par 72 that is exposed to the Texas wind, and the gusts will play a big role this week. The yardage requires distance off the tee and we’ll see plenty of drivers this week with three par 5s playing over 590 yards. We’re not going to see many eagles on this layout with the par 5s being three-shot holes, so staying clear of the hazards and carding birdies is what gets you to the weekend. The fairways are forgiving, though things tighten up on approach. Distance, more so than accuracy, will allow players to hit greens in regulation. Weather always seems to be a factor at this course and the forecast calls for rain and gusts over the weekend.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC
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