With the West Coast swing of the season put to rest the PGA Tour heads south of the border for this week’s playing of the WGC Mexico Championship in Naucalpan, Mexico. The limited field of 72 golfers features some of the best in the world with 17 of the top-20 ranked players scheduled to peg it up at the Club de Golf Chapultepec. Tiger Woods has turned this event into his own playground with seven titles spread over the different venues since the inception in 1999, but none since the Mexico stop.
Phil Mickelson captured the title last year and is down the odds board at +2929. There isn’t much time for Justin Thomas to get over his final round meltdown at the Genesis Open, and that could be a good thing for him. JT came off as the betting favorite at BookMaker.eu with odds of +731. Dustin Johnson ( +814 ) and Rory McIlroy ( +1061 ) round out the top three favorites.
Odds to Win WGC Mexico Championship at BookMaker.eu
Justin Thomas +731
Dustin Johnson +814
Rory McIlroy +1061
Jon Rahm +1266
Bryson DeChambeau +1445
Rickie Fowler +1701
Tiger Woods +1885
Brooks Koepka +2014
Xander Schauffele +2560
Tommy Fleetwood +2732
Phil Mickelson +2929
Tony Finau +2939
Hideki Matsuyama +3141
Gary Woodland +3492
Patrick Cantlay +3553
Marc Leishman +3941
Jordan Spieth +4000
Paul Casey +4050
Bubba Watson +4400
Webb Simpson +4555
Sergio Garcia +5350
Rafa Cabrera Bello +5850
Matt Kuchar +6203
Patrick Reed +6550
Francesco Molinari +6555
Charles Howell III +7030
Alex Noren +7319
Haotong Li +7555
Emiliano Grillo +7816
Tyrrell Hatton +7850
Billy Horschel +8045
Ian Poulter +10000
Henrik Stenson +10000
Cameron Smith +10000
Louis Oosthuizen +10000
Danny Willett +10050
Shane Lowry +10050
Matthew Fitzpatrick +10550
Matt Wallace +11000
Branden Grace +11550
Byeong Hun An +12500
Kevin Kisner +12500
Lee Westwood +12500
Abraham Ancer +12500
Aaron Rai +12500
Thorbjorn Olesen +13500
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +13500
Joost Luiten +13500
Shubhankar Sharma +13500
Chez Reavie +13500
Field - Any Player Not Listed Above +405
Odds Analysis
Tiger Woods +1885
Playing consecutive weeks isn’t going to lessen the workload, so I have to think Tiger is feeling good about his health and his game. He got worn down at the Genesis but showed signs of mastering a layout that has tamed him over his career. Tiger has never played this course, but that hasn’t prevented him from winning in the past. And Tiger is looking for a walk down memory lane. He captured half of the first 14 playings of this WGC, though he hasn’t played since 2014 and hasn’t won since 2013. Still, he appears to be trending in the right direction with a T20 at Torrey Pines and a T15 last week. And this layout is better suited for his game.
Hideki Matsuyama +3141
With a loaded field we can’t go too far down the odds board for a top value pick. That’s why I’m stopping at Matsuyama, who offers a nice payout with his current odds. He has a run of great form heading in, coming off a T9 at the Genesis for his third straight top-15 on the Tour. He’s striking the ball well and accurately during his run, and that will allow him to score well as long as the flat stick doesn’t fail him. Matsuyama’s tee-to-green numbers have allowed him to rank among the top-15 in scoring average this season.
Dustin Johnson +814
He won the inaugural WGC played in Mexico two years ago and defended his title with a T7 finish last year, so I’d say he’s comfortable with the layout. And DJ loves the WGC events as evidenced by his five victories. He rebounded from an opening round 73 at Riviera last week to claim a share of ninth and won in Saudi Arabia three weeks ago giving him three top-10s in his last five starts, so the form is in good shape. Tally his scores and DJ has an impressive 67.75 average at Club de Golf Chapultepec.
Rickie Fowler +1701
He’s coming off a win at the Phoenix Open and he hasn’t played a lot with this just his fifth start of the season. However, the recent form is impressive with a T4 and T5 to go along with his title. This hasn’t been the best layout for Fowler, though, with a 37 and 16 over his last two visits, and he’s been hexed by the poa annua greens when he lost nearly six strokes putting last year. You might want to hold off on Fowler for the Florida swing.
Courses: Club de Golf Chapultepec – 7,345 yards, Par 71
Considering the layout is situated roughly 7,800 feet above sea level, the distance will play much shorter. With that, one would think accuracy would be the name of the game on this track. And while hitting the ball where you want it to go is always a good thing, recent numbers on this course tell us we shouldn’t focus solely on that. Looking at grass types and tricky greens, the course is similar to what the Tour played at Riviera last week. Those who played well might have an advantage, but we should also have better conditions, and that evens the playing field. Adjusting to the altitude is the biggest obstacle, but the track is also lined with trees and players will have to maneuver around them if they get off line from the tee box.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go.
Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker.eu.
