The PGA Tour season is off and running in 2021, although it isn’t running very far. After opening the New Year last week in Maui, the Tour heads to Oahu for the Sony Open in Hawai’i, contested at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. This also marks the first full-field event of the year with over 140 golfers taking part and the cut rule back in place. Last week’s Sentry TOC winner Harris English goes for the Hawai’i sweep and is listed as the third favorite on the opening odds list behind Webb Simpson and Collin Morikawa while defending champion Cameron Smith is further down the board. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Odds to Win Sony Open in Hawai’i at BookMaker.eu
Webb Simpson +1000
Collin Morikawa +1200
Harris English +1400
Daniel Berger +1400
Sungjae Im +1800
Hideki Matsuyama +2000
Joaquin Niemann +2000
Cameron Smith +2500
Abraham Ancer +2800
Kevin Kisner +2800
Russell Henley +3000
Ryan Palmer +3000
Billy Horschel +3500
Adam Scott +3500
Lanto Griffin +4000
Brendon Todd +4000
Sergio Garcia +4000
Matt Kuchar +4000
Zach Johnson +4000
Kevin Na +5000
Brian Harman +5000
Sebastian Munoz +5000
Charles Howell III +5000
Emiliano Grillo +5000
Marc Leishman +5000
Jason Kokrak +5500
Erik Van Rooyen +6000
Si Woo Kim +7000
Keegan Bradley +7000
Carlos Ortiz +7000
Talor Gooch +7000
Brian Gay +8000
Chez Reavie +8000
Patton Kizzire +8000
Brandt Snedeker +8000
Scott Piercy +9000
Russell Knox +9000
Tom Hoge +9000
Mackenzie Hughes +9000
Cameron Davis +9000
Matthew Nesmith +9000
J.T. Poston +9000
Odds Analysis
Abraham Ancer +2800
Strong results at correlated venues and a solid season so far make Ancer a worthwhile pick in the outright market. That closing 76 at the Masters a few months ago could have had a lasting effect but we saw Ancer bounce back with a T12 at the Mayakoba and he closed strong last week with a Sunday 66 to finish among the top-20. Now on a course that plays to his strengths we could see better things. Accuracy is a plus ranking among the top-10 on tour off the tee while hitting 72 percent of GIR. Those are crucial on this layout and I’ll drop a few bucks on Ancer because of it.
Talor Gooch +7000
The field is wide open so glancing further down the odds board to find value picks is a must. Gooch has been up and down but he came close to securing his maiden Tour victory at the end of last year by snagging a pair of top-5s at the CJ Cup and Houston Open. When we last saw Gooch he left the RSM Classic with a MC, which is why his price is high, but the field opens up to a number of possibilities.
Tom Hoge +9000
Hoge is just itching to get back on the course after ending last year with a T3 at the Mayakoba where he carded 69 or lower in each round. He’s also enjoyed some success at Waialae making him another value pick. He averaged 2.3 strokes gained: tee to green leading to solo third in 2018 and his play on and around the greens last year helped him to a T12. It’s hard to pick up where you left off, but his strong play in Hawai’i has me dropping a few bills for an outright win.
Charles Howell III +5000
Another player who enjoys the annual visit to paradise, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Howell mingling with the leaders over the weekend. He hasn’t missed a Sony Open or a cut in the last 19 years recording seven top-5s among his 10 top-10s in that span. The layout and the weather haven’t changed over that time so it’s safe to say Howell knows what to expect. He also boasts a scoring average of 67.57 in 72 career rounds.
Cameron Smith +2500
It’s hard to repeat so backing Smith could be risky from that perspective. But a deeper dive into his game shows that he offers plenty of value at his current price. He’s still feeling good about his performance at the Masters, though he’d feel much had he won. Still, a runner-up showing was nice. He did knock off some rust last week and gets a venue that better suits his game at Waialae. His game on and around the green has been exceptional over the last few months, which could lead to big things this week.
Course: Waialae Country Club – 7,044-yards, par-70
The course has hosted this event since 1965 and is short by Tour standards. Those who played last week will have to do an abrupt change to their approach. The beast at Kapalua measured over 7,500 yards at par 73 and played to the long strikers. Now we have the tidy layout at Waialae that goes just over 7,000 yards. The track will force players to club down off the tee box with importance on accuracy rather than distance. It’s a straightforward layout with few hazards which is why we’ve seen some low scores in the past. Four years ago Justin Thomas won the prize with a record 27-under. That changed last year with Smith’s 11-under winning score being the highest at this event since 2012. Like last week wind will certainly be a factor, though the forecast right now calls for tamer conditions.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
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