The PGA Tour returns to its regular stroke-play format with one last stop in the Sunshine State when the field tees it up this week at the Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor, Florida. The tournament gets a later slot in the schedule as it returns after being a COVID casualty last year. Two-time defending champion Paul Casey has a difficult task ahead as he looks to become the first three-time winner of this event. Casey is slotted behind betting favorite Justin Thomas and OWGR No. 1 Dustin Johnson on the opening odds list. Ten of the top-30 golfers in the world are scheduled to tee it up at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort starting on Thursday. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of betting odds when you’re ready to place a wager.
Odds to Win Valspar Championship at BookMaker.eu
Justin Thomas +800
Dustin Johnson +1000
Corey Conners +2000
Patrick Reed +2000
Viktor Hovland +2200
Paul Casey +2500
Tyrrell Hatton +2800
Scottie Scheffler +3000
Abraham Ancer +3000
Louis Oosthuizen +3000
Russell Henley +3000
Sungjae Im +3000
Joaquin Niemann +3500
Cameron Tringale +4000
Jason Kokrak +4000
Bubba Watson +4500
Charley Hoffman +4500
Justin Rose +4500
Chris Kirk +5000
Emillano Grillo +5000
Kevin Na +5500
Ryan Palmer +5500
Kevin Streelman +6000
Kevin Kisner +6600
Gary Woodland +7000
Lucas Glover +7000
Max Homa +7000
Keegan Bradley +7500
Talor Gooch +7500
Cameron Davis +8000
Charles Howell III +8000
Adam Hadwin +9000
Branden Grace +9000
Denny McCarthy +9000
Ian Poulter +9000
Sam Burns +9000
Odds Analysis
Paul Casey +2500
It’s hard to talk about this event without mentioning Casey. He’s the two-time defending champ so his history alone puts him in good company. And he’s been playing good golf recently, though he did miss the cut at the RBC Heritage. But those things happen and I like the Englishman to get back to his consistent and winning ways on a course that’s been good to him. Casey has four top-10s in six stroke play events this year and can become the first three-time winner at the Valspar. The task doesn’t seem so impossible since the tournament was shelved last year.
Lucas Glover +7000
Recent form and course history collide to give plenty of value to Glover. And at his price he’s hard to ignore. He comes in with a pair of top-20s in his last three starts, including a fourth-place showing at the Texas Open. Glover also has two top-20s in his last three visits to Innisbrook Resort making him an intriguing figure in the field. He uses his irons well, which is something that should help his case this week.
Sungjae Im +3000
Apparently Im doesn’t like the team and match play formats on Tour, so with a return to individual stroke play I’ll back him at a decent price. He and his partner missed the cut at the Zurich Classic last week and he lost in the group stage at the WGC Match Play. He was T8 at the Honda Classic before and T13 at the RBC Heritage in between, and he was among the top-5 here in 2019. I backed him at the Masters a few weeks ago and Im struggled. That doesn’t happen often so I’m going back to him this week.
Dustin Johnson +1000
He had been so good for such a long stretch that some regression was expected. It happened to Johnson recently, but he looked to be regaining the form that vaulted him to the top of the world rankings with a T13 at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago. And not listed as the betting favorite on the opening line should allow DJ to play a relaxed game. Catching the world No. 1 at this price looks like a good move, which is why I’m jumping at the offer.
Jason Kokrak +4000
Another player on a run of decent form with past success at Innisbrook is Kokrak. He has three top-10s in his last five starts at this event, including a runner-up in 2019 when he finished one shot off the pace. He had a run of three straight top-10 showings culminating with a T9 at THE PLAYERS in March before getting interrupted by the different formats. A return to stroke play likely gets Kokrak back on track and I’m behind him at his current price.
Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort – 7,340 yards, Par 71
Copperhead has hosted the event since its debut in 2000 and plays a long par-71. However, unlike most, the layout features four par-5s and five par-3s. For the most part it’s a straightforward course with narrow fairways and small greens. Two holes in particular have proven over the years to be the most difficult, the 13th and 16th. We’ll see on average about one in 20 golfers to play each hole sign a double bogey or worse. The course is relatively long, but it is an iron and second-shot layout. A lot of sticks in the bag will be used this weekend. The closing stretch starting at 16 is known as the Snake Pit and as one of the toughest on Tour. The conditions are expected to be ripe, giving the field one less thing to think about.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel, CBS
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